If you live in San Diego County, it’s well known that during the holidays some of the county’s (and region’s) illegal immigrant population returns to Mexico for the holidays, then returns back into the United States after the holidays are over.
That trend is expected to be way down this year, according to the North County Times:
Immigrants and authorities say they expect fewer illegal border crossings over the holiday season, which would be consistent with trends recorded by U.S. Border Patrol statistics in recent years.
But immigrants and their advocates say the dangers of crossings amid increased border enforcement — made mortally clear by the death of a Vista woman in last month’s Harris fire — have more Mexican nationals choosing to stay on this side of the border this winter.
The recent [Southern California and especially San Diego County] wildfires offered deadly evidence of the risks that the immigrants take in their attempts to cross the border illegally. Twenty people were admitted to the burn center at the UCSD Medical Center with wildfire-related injuries after the fires broke out Oct. 21. These patients included 11 suspected illegal immigrants, two of whom later died.
But it’s NOT just the fire that’s slowing the usual holiday trend:
Fire was just one of the dangers worrying several men waiting at a day-labor site in Escondido on Tuesday morning.
“Until we get legal documents, we’re not leaving,” said Jose Alfonso, an 18-year-old native of Michoacan, Mexico, who lives in Escondido. “Coming over the mountains is too dangerous.”
Several other men standing at a day-labor site in Escondido on Tuesday morning echoed the young man’s concerns, saying they feared crime in Mexico, abuses by Mexican authorities and increased border security upon return.
The catalyst for some of the balking is the death of Maria Guadalupe Beltran who died Nov. 6 due to injuries from the fire. In a typical year, illegal immigrant crossings…and recrossings…coincide with both the winter holidays and the winter agricultural season.
One way to measure this trend, which by its nature is difficult to track, is with recent Border Patrol statistics that show a dip in border crossing arrests during the holiday months.
For example, arrests slowed to 7,733 last November and to 6,340 in December before surging to 13,961 in January — a pattern repeated each year.
Matthew Johnson, a spokesman for the Border Patrol in San Diego, said it’s difficult to say how many people travel back and forth during the holiday season, because agents don’t ask. But he said the trend is “pretty significant.”
This article also quotes Wayne Cornelius, a thoughtful and solid specialist on immigration issues who I quoted extensively when I covered the border for the San Diego Union newspaper and covered the amnesty plan under the administration of Ronald Reagan during the mid-1980s:
An unintended consequence of the increase in border enforcement is a rise in the permanent illegal immigrant population in the country, according to Wayne Cornelius, director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, an immigration research organization based at UC San Diego.
A key factor is what Cornelius calls “reduced circularity,” which means fewer Mexican migrants are returning home seasonally due to the cost and danger involved.
In other words, to use a current cliche: those who are “in the shadows” more than usual are staying “in the shadows” and not risking moving out into the daylight..
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.