Was Iran’s seizing and holding British sailors just another flash-in-the-pan crisis? Or was it indicative of shifting world power centers? Is it strictly a political event — or will its ripples be felt for a long time to come?
And what does it portend for the future?
These are just some of the many underlying questions lurking beneath Iran’s decision to release 15 British sailors. One thing is certain: the event is likely to have consequences, whether it’s in the area of policy making (in London, Washington and Tehran), perceptions of key world players, the Iranian regime, and even perhaps in the publishing world.
The tipoff: just look at the variety of news stories and website posts devoted to the issue. Here’s a quick recap.
The Detroit-based The Arab American writes:
The release of the 15 British naval personnel this week should not be seen solely within the context of the U.N. sanctions placed on Iran or the tough rhetoric from President George Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair. Neither should it be attributed to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s claim of doing it out of “Islamic kindness.”
Rather it should be viewed in the context of a longstanding war between the hegemonic superpower and the various challenges to that power. Arab nationalism, notably that of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel-Nasser, was the first such challenge, followed by others, all to give way to the current challenge in the form of Islamic fundamentalism.
The U.S.-Iran war, in which the seizure and subsequent release of the sailors and marines is but one battle, is a long-running war with no seeming end in sight. The Islamic Republic is the region’s most direct governmental challenge to American hegemony — for better or worse — aside from non-state actors like Al-Qaeda.
The U.S.-Iran clash has seen the stakes rise to a near war footing on both sides. Whether direct military action will be taken by the United States — something hinted at repeatedly in the media during the last two years — remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure: the U.S. and Iran are at war.
This war isn’t the same as the wars against Iraq, Yugoslavia, or non-state entities such as Al-Qaeda, but it’s a cold war on a fault line, with both countries observing a détente, yet waiting to explode under the right circumstances.
Iran says the sailors’ charges that they were mistreated is “a lie.” But the bigwigs in Tehran ought to brace themselves: the sailors have been given the green-light by the British government to sell their stories to the media. That means BOOK DEALS and probably some kind of MOVIE based on their story, as told by them. How likely is it that Iranians will turn out to be the good guys?
The 15 sailors and marines held by Iran for 13 days will be allowed to sell their stories to the media, in a break with usual rules, the Defence Ministry said on Saturday.
Serving personnel were not normally allowed to sell their stories but the ministry decided to grant the 15 permission due to the huge media interest, said a ministry spokeswoman. “These are considered to be exceptional circumstances,” she said.
The spokeswoman said the 15, freed last Thursday after being seized by Iranian forces in the Shatt al-Arab waterway between Iraq and Iran, would be able to keep the money they received.
This sets the stage for this story to continue to be on many news cycles and it’s unlikely that what emerges from these accounts will be flattering to the Iranians. And the government and some Iranians say the release of the sailors — who contend they were seized well within Iraqi waters — shows the “true” nature of the Iranian government. The Tehran Times:
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad’s surprise announcement on Wednesday that the British military personnel detained for entering Iranian waters were to be freed was met by a round of applause by correspondents attending the press conference. The move was another example of the civilized attitude of the Iranian people, which is acknowledged by friends and foes alike and has its roots in ancient Iran. The president called the decision to free the sailors and marines “a gift from the Iranian people to the British people.�
Iranian armed forces arrested the 15 British marines and sailors on March 23 after they illegally entered Iran’s territorial waters in the northern Persian Gulf.
But then, aside from both perceptions and official government spin, there are cultural differences that will likely continue to monkey-wrench attempts to ease tensions between the two sides. For instance, the BBC noted a little noticed fact about how the captured British sailors were dressed by the Iranians:
The male British captives freed by Iran were pictured in government-issued suits and, like President Ahmadinejad, sported open neck shirts. Does no one in Iran wear a tie?
Even if without the smiles and waves, the sight of the 15 British sailors and marines released by Iran would have been notable for one thing: their attire.
With the exception of Faye Turney, the only woman to be held, the others sported near identical suits, in sober tones of grey and blue.
The outfits were provided by the Iranian authorities and are identical to suits worn by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Iranians, however, are prohibited from wearing ties in Iran because they contribute to the spreading of western culture, according to the website of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khameini.
What does the crisis and its resolution mean?
Angus McDowall in Tehran and Anne Penketh of the Belfast Telegraph say it underscores two facts: that despite various reports over the past few months there has been unity among Iran’s elites — and that Iran has shown it could thumb its nose at Great Britain and the U.S. and get away with it:
Much has been made of the factionalism in Iranian politics, but the past fortnight has demonstrated an unusual degree of unity. Whether the capture of the British boats was planned by the Revolutionary Guards alone, or approved from on high, will probably never be known.
But Iranian insiders say the Supreme National Security Council, where foreign policy is decided, took charge of the crisis early on and exploited it.
This does not mean that the regime is united in everything, however – wide rifts separate the warring factions on everything from economic management to Iraq and the nuclear confrontation. But the division of labours – between diplomacy and credit – reflects a shift in the delicate balance of Iranian politics.
Ali Larijani, the increasingly influential secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is understood to have made the diplomatic breakthrough, whereas President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared to play little role in the saga beyond making the dramatic announcement of the release. Despite being the nominal head of the council, his foreign policy credentials are poor – and were not called upon until it was time to present Iranian magnanimity to the world.
Official opinion in Tehran is that the crisis ended with an Iranian victory. Iran showed that despite months of Western pressure, it could seize two boatloads of coalition troops and hold them for two weeks without facing serious sanction – a lesson to Britain and the US of the possible consequences of future confrontation.
The only groups to be dismayed by Wednesday’s events were hardline factions already opposed to the President. They were given a sop in the award of a medal to the Revolutionary Guardsman who captured the British boats, but were cheated of their demand to see the sailors tried and an apology from the UK.
Read the entire piece.
Meanwhile, ABC News has an article focusing on the opinions on various Iranian blogs. We’ve visited a few of them and many of them are celebrating the way their country came out of it and discounting talk of the captives being mistreated. Some excerpts:
– View From Iran (written by an American in Iran) has a post that includes this:
Keivan has been speculating on how they were fitted for their outfits and who bought them. And the strangest part yet (at least for me) is the parting gifts. Who provides released foreign captives with parting gifts? They got pistachios too: not too shabby a parting gift at all!
Imagine, 5 years in Guantanamo and then you get a little party bag filled with Starbucks coupons and Gap t-shirts. “A memento of your stay with us.”
No matter what you think about this whole crisis over the British sailors, Iran took great advantage of the situation and got much of what it was looking for, while leaving a way out for the Brits to get their sailors back. Now everybody’s happy, except perhaps G. W. Bush (this guy almost never gets to be happy, because he can’t think!).
UPDATE: And, yes, Blair wins, too. Because he showed that, contrary to his American friends, he’s a person who stands for dialogue and reason rather than prejudice and insanity.
Thank you! finally the Britons are released and Ahmadinejad could assume he was a compassionate winner out there and felt good. I am telling you, you want to win with this guy, make him feel good about himself and you are set 🙂 He will write in his diary today: I gave a gift to Britain!
I hope that the world would also please stop evil-izing Iran. So we have a naughty government…you do not have to tell us over and over, we already know it 🙂 and this playground is so full of such problem children. We -Iranians- do not have to be punched just because we go to the same school as this naughty boy goes. And you told on us to the security council? ooh man…all the school knows that they go to the same bar as your dad! man…Iran and UK were seriously telling each other “me! you! outside” but seems that someone gave both of them a chocolate bar this time:)
Jokes apart, this is a good news to hear. I am sure some people in Iran and UK are looking for good pillows for the first nice night after a while.
—Persian Students In the UK mocks talk of the sailors being mistreated:
I share the outrage expressed in the British press over the treatment of our naval personnel accused by Iran of illegally entering their waters. It is a disgrace. We would never dream of treating captives like this – allowing them to smoke cigarettes, for example, even though it has been proven that smoking kills. And as for compelling poor servicewoman Faye Turney to wear a black headscarf, and then allowing the picture to be posted around the world – have the Iranians no concept of civilised behaviour? For God’s sake, what’s wrong with putting a bag over her head? That’s what we do with the Muslims we capture: we put bags over their heads, so it’s hard to breathe. Then it’s perfectly acceptable to take photographs of them and circulate them to the press because the captives can’t be recognised and humiliated in the way these unfortunate British service people are.
Meanwhile, a relatively new American blogger has a take on the crisis: Fred Thompson, the former Senator and “Law and Order” TV actor who seems poised to enter race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. His post on the lively Republican-oriented website Red State needs to be read IN FULL but here are a few excerpts:
Maybe it’s because military action won’t be needed or maybe it’s just because the ordeal won’t drag on and on, but the world is breathing easier now. A lot of folks are happy. The problem, as I see it, is that Ahmadinejad seems to be the happiest.
And why shouldn’t he be? He has shown the world that his forces can kidnap British citizens, subject them to brutal psychological tactics to coerce phony confessions, finagle the release of a high-ranking Iranian terror coordinator in Iraq, utterly trash the Geneva conventions and suffer absolutely no consequences.
The UN Security Council summoned its vaunted multilateral greatness to issue a swift statement of sincere uneasiness. The EU, which has pressured Britain to rely on Europeans for mutual defense instead of the US, wouldn’t even discuss economic sanctions that might disrupt their holidays. Even NATO was AWOL.
Tony Blair doesn’t appear to be in much of a mood for celebrating. I don’t know how he could be, given the troubling spectacle of British soldiers shake the hand of their kidnapper as a condition of release. In the old days, they would have kissed his ring — but wearing Iranian suits and carrying swag more appropriate to a Hollywood awards ceremony may have been as embarrassing. Ironically, Blair’s options are fewer by the day as his own party moves to mothball the British fleet, once the fear of pirates and tyrants the world over.
Some in the West seem part of Iran’s propaganda war; claiming that the release of the hostages was a victory that proves the Iranian dictatorship can be reasoned with. To misrepresent unpunished piracy as a victory is as Orwellian as the congressional mandate banning use of the term “the global war on terror.” What are we — Reuters?
At the end of his blog post Thompson writes:
Right now, the pirate Ahmadinejad is clearly more confident about the outcome of the Global War on Terror than we are. That ought to give us pause.
Read his entire post.
Thompson knows how to communicate well (verbally, in writing and on the small screen) which is why he is someone to watch for the GOP nomination — just as Iran’s President has shown a skill for the sound bite and the highly quotable (if inflammatory) easy-to-fit-in-a-headline phrase.
As we have written here before, our take is that Ahmadinejad showed by the timing of the sailors’ release and the way he presented it that his personal, political and international foes will underestimate his political abilities at their own risk.
UPDATE:
—The Washington Post’s Kathleen Parker echoes our comments about Ahmadinejad’s political savvy:
On any given day, one isn’t likely to find common cause with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He’s a dangerous, lying, Holocaust- denying, Jew-hating cutthroat thug — not to put too fine a point on it.
But he was dead-on when he wondered why a once-great power such as Britain sends mothers of toddlers to fight its battle
Ahmadinejad characterized as a gift to Britain the release of 15 British sailors and marines, including one woman, seized at sea last month. In reality, the hostages were the West’s gift to Ahmadinejad.
When a pretender to sanity such as Ahmadinejad gets to lecture the West about how it treats its women, we’ve effectively handed him a free pass to the end zone and made the world his cheerleaders.
Not only does the Iranian president get to look magnanimous in releasing the hostages, but he gets to look wise. And we in the West get to look humiliated, foolish and weak..
It’s all a matter of perception (which matters in politics).
–Hardliners are warning that more kidnappings could come, reports The Daily Telegraph:
Hardliners in the Iranian regime have warned that the seizure of British naval personnel demonstrates that they can make trouble for the West whenever they want to and do so with impunity.
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: a PR bounceThe bullish reaction from Teheran will reinforce the fears of western diplomats and military officials that more kidnap attempts may be planned.
The British handling of the crisis has been regarded with some concern in Washington, and a Pentagon defence official told The Sunday Telegraph: “The fear now is that this could be the first of many. If the Brits don’t change their rules of engagement, the Iranians could take more hostages almost at will…”
It is also clear that the Iranian government believes that the outcome has strengthened its position over such contentious issues as its nuclear programme. Hardliners within the regime have been lining up to crow about Britain’s humiliation, and indicated that the operation was planned.
Conservative parliamentarian Amir Hassankhani, a former member of the country’s Revolutionary Guard and supporter of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, told the country’s semi-official Fars news agency: “The arrest and release of the British sailors proved that if Iran’s issues and demands are overlooked at the international level, the Islamic republic can create different challenges for the other side.”
—Read skippy
CORRECTION: The link to Persian Students In UK actually gives a post on that site that is THIS COLUMN FROM THE GUARDIAN. We regret the error.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.