The last Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows Democratic Senator Barack Obama gaining strength as South Carolina votes in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. And if the results mirror it, Obama could have an opportunity: to once again have the news media focused on him as he delivers a major speech detailing his campaign’s “change” and unity themes to a large TV audience.
Could a win there and a chance to give a widely covered victory speech refocus the campaign on his themes of change and a different style of politics? Perhaps the impact of a second victory speech (if he wins) wouldn’t have as much impact as his speech from Iowa.
But it would redirect the focus back to his original ideas which have become somewhat obscured amid controversies of former President Bill Clinton’s campaigning role, tone and accuracy and Senator Hillary Clinton’s recent about-face announcement on seating delegates from Florida and Michigan.
Zogby’s poll shows this:
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama reversed a declining course and regained some support heading into Election Day here, posting a 15-point lead just hours before polls open here today, the latest and last Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.
Buoyed by widespread support among African American voters who are planning to participate in the Democratic Party primary here, Obama wins 41% support, compared to 26% for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and 19% for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Clinton and Edwards are splitting the support of white voters, who make up about half of the total Democratic electorate here.
And Zogby adds this:
“Obama holds solid leads in every section of the state, and among both men and women. He has big leads among voters under age 65. Interestingly, among voters over age 65, Clinton leads him by a few points only, and Edwards is doing well.
“We are making no predictions, but on the watch list is the order of finish here. Obama leads big among moderates and liberals and among all age groups. He is back over 60% support among blacks, while Clinton and Edwards are tied among whites. Clinton returned to the state after her numbers here started to slip and Edwards started to gain. After all, he is, like Bill Clinton, a son of the South.
Overall, Obama’s lead is solid as Election Day dawns, but voters here have been fluid in their support.
But: survey USA notes that polls showed Obama winning before and were wrong.
And Pollster.com notes that there is a wide variation in many of the polls:
There are many important technical reasons for the variation, but they all stem from the same underlying cause: Many South Carolina voters are still uncertain, both about their choices and about whether they will vote…
Meanwhile, The Politico notes that the Clinton campaign is pursuing a “selective strategy” that’s carefully focused on getting delegates no matter what Obama gets in the statewide tally:
With polls showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton lagging behind Sen. Barack Obama here, the Clinton campaign is concentrating on competing hard in selected congressional districts in an effort to keep Obama from running up the score in Saturday’s primary.
The strategy hinges on how the Democrats award the state’s 54 delegates to the national convention. Unlike the Republicans’ winner-take-all approach, the Democrats give 35 percent of delegates to the state’s winner and allocate the remaining delegates based on the candidates’ performance in each of the state’s six congressional districts.
“Even if Obama wins the state as many people expect, we’ll be picking up delegates and that’s what it’s all about,” said a Clinton aide. “We’re ahead in the overall delegate count and that adds to our total.”
Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki questioned the strategy saying the Clinton campaign has been “working overtime to lower expectations” while still spending significant time and money in the state.
Both campaigns are zeroing in on groups they’ll need to win.
The great blog Intel-dump has a dispatch from the field by CAPT W. Scott Gould, USNR (Ret), Co-Chair, National Veterans Policy Committee for Obama, which gives an idea of how these events go. Here are some excerpts.
When Senator Obama took the stage, he asked all veterans present to stand and be recognized. Veterans from World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, among others, rose to thunderous applause as he thanked them for their service.
Obama returned to veterans themes several times during his forty minute stump speech that involved a well crafted call-and-response: “Are you ready for change?” as the crowd roared back “We’re ready!” His main message came across to vets: his gratitude for their service; his recognition for their sacrifice; and his desire to support the services required to make that support real.
Obama said: “Our veterans should not have to beg for the services owed to them.” He spoke against the year-long backlogs and labyrinthine applications processes at the Veterans Administration. He called top-quality service for our vets: “A sacred trust between the nation and its wounded warriors”.
With South Carolina nearing its January 26 primary, Obama’s character and values were on display in an unfailingly positive and respectful tone that warned of last minute attempts to mislead voters. He took a few minutes to identify and rebut negative attacks. He described a 20 year career of grass roots organizing, law and politics; recounted the gift of love, education and hope given to him by his family; and, talked about the importance of acting for change and not accepting the old formulations and the unsuccessful approaches of the past.
Reactions in the audience were overwhelmingly positive. Bill Dooling, a Vietnam veteran, union organizer and retired teacher of 30 years said: “I saw Bobby Kennedy in the 1960’s. Obama has the same ability to motivate and inspire young and old. We need a President who can relate to all generations.” John Hurley, a Vietnam veteran said: “Obama has a deep and sincere desire to take care of vets….”
Read the entire post for a taste of the in-the-trenches political battle. The outcome will be determined within hours today.
MUST READ RESOURCE ON PRIMARY DAY: Be sure to watch Pajamas Media’s updates HERE.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.