The latest Zogby tracking poll indicates the headline coming out of the today’s New Hampshire primary could again be voters thirsting for change giving Democratic Senator Barack Obama a whopping victory margin — and a comeback by Republican Senator John McCain:
The big momentum behind Democrat Barack Obama, a senator from Illinois who is seeking his party’s presidential nomination, continued up to the last hours before voters head to the polls to cast ballots in the New Hampshire primary election, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows. Fed by a strong win in the Iowa caucuses Thursday, Obama leads with 42% support, compared to 29% for rival Sen. Hillary Clinton.
In the Republican primary race, Arizona Sen. John McCain extended his lead over rival Mitt Romney from five to nine percentage points since yesterday, the survey shows.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards mostly held steady, winning 17% support, though he has begun to lose steam. Though he won the Republican Iowa caucus Thursday, Mike Huckabee found himself in the same position as Edwards, unable to build Obama-like momentum and stuck in third – a distant third in Huckabee’s case.
If the polling results reflect the final results it suggests:
(1) Clinton will likely face even grimmer prospects in the South Carolina primary and beyond. A big loss here would not just shatter the image of her as “inevitable” (which is already shattered) but strengthen the belief that she is a politician who — for all her intelligence and skills — simply does not resonate with a broad-chunk of voters.
Still, her campaign has mega-funds, superb organization and topflight advisers. She can stay in the race until the convention if she wants to. And in future primaries she could get a chunk of delegates based on the extent of her vote. But if it looks like it’s not gonna happen, will she and husband Bill risk damaging the “Clinton brand” to the point where it wouldn’t “sell” if she a future Presidential race?
(2) The GOP race could go right down to the divisive wire. Romney has the big bucks and Huckabee with his charisma and evangelical support could get some wins in other primaries. However, if McCain wins, it’ll be a huge media event story — a comeback story..the kind loved by the media. And McCain knows how to use media coverage to his advantage. Romney is unlikely to go away: he has the $$$.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.