A new Zogby poll has Democratic Senator Barack Obama with a lead over Republican Senator John McCain to 44% to 38% and a substantial electoral vote lead — 273 to 158.
But a cautionary note. As has been the instance throughout the primary season, these see-saw polls vary. Still, Zogby’s findings are an eyebrow-raiser.
The findings also suggest something else: Libertarian Presidential candidate Bob Barr could possibly wind up being to McCain what third party candidate Ralph Nader was to Al Gore in 2000 — someone who siphons away needed votes.
As the race for President passes the Independence Day holiday and heads toward the dog days of summer, Sen. Barack Obama holds a 44% to 38% lead over Sen. John McCain in the horserace contest, but also leads by a substantial margin in a state-by-state Electoral College tally, a new Zogby Interactive poll shows.
The extensive national poll of of 46,274 likely voters also shows Libertarian candidate and former Congressman Bob Barr wins 6% support, eating into McCain’s needed conservative base of support.
Zogby himself writes:
Obama is in the driver’s seat right now, especially where it really counts – in the electoral votes. Bob Barr could really hurt McCain’s chances. McCain can’t afford the level of slippage to Barr we found among conservatives in this polling. While there has been plenty of talk about Obama’s recent emphasis on his centrist positions, he can get away with it during these dog days of the campaign as McCain finds himself still trying to shore up the conservative base. McCain will have to move to the center because right now Obama is clobbering him among independents. But there is the rub for McCain: Bob Barr has some juice among conservatives and is hurting him in several states.
Other polls (as usual with most polls this year) don’t entirely agree with the vote percentages.
For instance, Gallup Daily Tracking has the race more or less at a standstill, with Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent, which still represents a narrow lead.
Except for a brief period a week ago when McCain and Obama were tied in voter preference, Obama has had the slight upper hand in the race since Gallup’s June 6 report, leading McCain by one to seven percentage points. The last time McCain had any numerical advantage over Obama was in Gallup’s June 5 report when he was one percentage point ahead, 46% to 45%. However, the last time McCain had a statistically significant lead was in early May.
Rasmussen Reports’ numbers (it’s last poll was Thursday) are a bit different than Gallup in terms of the numbers and the electoral vote lead — but still substantial lead for Obama. The numbers are a bit closer to Zogby’s:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%…
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.
Why is there such disparity between the polls? Here’s why.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.