Dave Pell offers one of the most interesting theories yet on why George Bush picked Harriet Miers for Sandra O’Connor’s seat — angering his loyal conservative base:
To coin a phrase: It’s the campaign, Stupid.
I’ve never bought the idea that Bush, well educated and a son of power and privilege, ever really bought the message he pitched to the base. Think Cheney and Bush are really anti-gay? Think Yale’s Bush is really against the evil academic elite?
It’s an act.
And this week, W was faced with a decision: Keep going down this path or be more like the person he probably really is and those who he is actually surrounded by.
My take is that W stopped running for office today.
That is quite an interesting theory.
It’s no secret that GWB’s father Poppy Bush found campaigning unseemly. Governing was his bag. And he tried to reassure his party’s conservatives in a variety of ways (Rush Limbaugh was a critic until Bush invited him to sleep over in the Lincoln bedroom — he came out a lot more sympathetic) but failed when he signed on to a tax increase. When TV reporters asked the jogging President about his tax increase and he smiled and said “Read my hips,” he was history.
Most material written on GWB says he’s the anti-Poppy: determined not to commit the same mistakes that caused his father’s forced retirement from office, which was extremely painful for the Bush family. Meanwhile, most accounts paint GWB as more like Ronald Reagan than his dad.
But it is nearing the end of Bush’s term. He can’t run for office again. And, yes, he wants a Republican majority. And he has an agenda he wants to enact — even if it’s scaled down.
Given the feelings of anger and betrayal that Mier’s nomination caused among conservatives, you have to wonder why he picked her. There are various possiblities:
- She was the best person for the job in the whole country. (Let’s flatly say: “fat chance” on that.)
- Bush wanted someone personally loyal to him on the court for policy and perhaps personal legal reasons.
- She is a “stealth” candidate who will move the court to the right and all the Democratic relief is misplaced. Once she gets in there will be a significant shift that will please conservatives and upset Democrats.
- She is someone actually more moderate than what conservatives want — because that’s what Bush really wants on the court. Despite what he has said (if you believe this theory), if the social conservatives weren’t demanding it, he would not take a hard line on abortion (he is, remember, like his mom).
- He wanted to give the Democrats someone they could live with, to avoid a fight and start moving towards a more consensus-oriented approach in Congress. (Harry Reid is therefore a genius.)
- He wanted to give the Democrats someone who will surprise them but turn out to be everything they feared as the court moves more to the right — the ultimate political end-game win. (Harry Reid is therefore a schmuck.)
But, if you look at these, there is the tantalizing possibility: what if Pell is right?
What if, as they sit in the White House looking at polls far more intricate than the ones we link to on our blogs, Bush, Rove et al decided that they just don’t want to polarize and really can’t afford to do it anymore. And, since he’s not running, suppose that they’re willing to take a risk to avoid giving conservatives the Supreme Court nominees they crave and instead pick ones THEY want.
As we’ve said in other posts, there does seem to be an element of Bush picking someone he works with and admires because conservatives basically black-balled Alberto Gonzales, whom he works with and admires. “They raised a stink and forced me not to pick Alberto? OK. But this time I’m going to pick someone whom I want to pick.”
Bush isn’t running again, and for years he has been battling the Democrats, Saddam, Osama, and European nations which don’t agree with him. Maybe this IS a case of him not running again and deciding: this time I’m not going to let them pressure me and I’m going to do this totally my way.
There may be a feeling of “Just where can these guys GO anyway?” And there is some truth in that. A third party? Unlikely, over just one nomination.
You can also now see how, on some of the conservative weblogs, initial anger seems to be slowly morphing into acceptance of the party line. Does this mean conservatives will quickly embrace this nomination? We could be wrong but, in the end, we predict Bush will keep his base and Rush and Sean won’t have a tough time like today when they had to defend and promote the White House’s position in the face of rebelling conservatives.