When Obama hit his peak numbers a week or two ago, conventional wisdom said the race would tighten somewhat as we got closer to the election. But as has happened so many times this year, conventional wisdom has turned out wrong, so far.
Above is an aggregate of all national polls taken this year. While McCain seems to be improving from his nadir of two weeks ago, we haven’t seen a corresponding drop in Obama’s numbers. They remain steady above 50%, and if anything continue to improve. McCain’s only real hope is to cut Obama down. He’s thrown a lot against the wall in recent weeks (Ayers, socialism, etc.), and nothing seems to stick to the Teflon Candidate.
What’s remarkable, when you look at the average of polls throughout the year, is how stable the race has been since Obama sealed the nomination. We heard a lot, until recently, about how volatile and neck-and-neck the race was, but the graph shows Obama with a pretty steady lead, minus the period immediately after the Republican convention. It seemed at the time as if the Palin pick had changed the dynamics of the race. But looking back, it now looks just like a bounce.
The state polls have been less consistent, however, and that’s where Obama is really opening up significant leads. He is ahead by double-digits in most states won by John Kerry in 2004, and is pulling ahead in swing states like Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania. Hell, there have been three polls this week showing McCain’s lead in Arizona down to single-digits (the closest had it at two points). It’s very unlikely he’ll win Arizona, but at this point an Obama landslide may be more likely than a tightening race.
Nate Silver, the best at this sort of analysis, says the following has to happen before we can expect a close outcome on election night: “John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.”
He currently projects a 3.3% chance of that happening.
Cross-posted at Ablogistan.