What are the long-term gains/losses for the USA in sending more troops to Afghanistan? Is it a smoke-screen for America’s “other” ambitions? Or, is this another naive manifestation of the decade-old American foreign policy? Will the US “surge” in Afghanistan lead to more violence locally and elsewhere?
In terms of future US containment strategy of China, Afghanistan air bases offer better prospects than Pakistan, provided USA stays embedded in Afghanistan, says Dr Subhash Kapila, of the South Asia Analysis Group. “Afghan air-bases also provide an added strategic asset for US strategic air coverage of the Central Asian Republics and the Middle East.
“If the choice confronts Pakistan in terms of strategic support for USA versus China, Pakistan will opt for China. In real terms Pakistan geo-strategically offers no value to USA except for a very remote possibility of use as an India-containment strategy.
“In terms of public attitudes polled, the majority of Pakistanis and the Pakistan Army’s rank and file are decidedly anti-American. Contrastingly, the majority of the Afghans are in favor of the United States military presence in Afghanistan to restore stability.
“Afghanistan and Pakistan are two separate and distinct geo-strategic and geopolitical entities. A comparative analysis of Afghanistan and Pakistan which this paper attempts to analyze, would indicate that the geo-strategic and geopolitical significance of Afghanistan far outweighs that of Pakistan, both in regional terms and in the global power games.
“In passing, it could also be asserted that despite its landlocked location, Afghanistan far outweighs Pakistan in geo-economic terms too both in terms of substantial deposits of oil and natural gas (assessed but not tapped) and as a energy corridor for Central Asia energy produce.
“If Afghanistan was not geo-strategically and geo-politically significant, then the United States would have not have executed two military interventions in Afghanistan in a span of 20 years.
“Significantly, it should not be overlooked by the US strategic establishment, that the United States rode in victory into Kabul in 2002 on the shoulders of the Afghan Northern Alliance and not the Pakistan Army.
“Pakistan’s geo-strategic significance has all along in its 60 years plus existence has stood considerably exaggerated by the US strategic planners. Originally, in relation to the Cold War containment strategy, in the 1980s as a spring board for US strategy to confront Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and presently (doubtful strategic utility) in the global war on terrorism.
“American strategic planners seem to view strategic access to Afghanistan, through the long torturous routes through Pakistan emanating from Karachi to Kabul via the Khyber Pass.
“The United States has now awoken to the much shorter route from Iran (Chahbahar Port) and then via the Indian constructed link road joining the Iranian border to the Afghanistan circular national highway.
“Geo-strategically, if the United States wishes to adhere to Brezezinski’s famous precept of USA retaining predominance in Eurasia, then Afghanistan with a US-Iran rapprochement in tandem offers the best option.
“Afghanistan geo-politically has existed as a nation state since 1749 onwards and as a political state with recognized boundaries since 1919. In terms of political existence, Afghanistan pre-dates Pakistan by nearly 200 years…
“Politically, today, Afghanistan is at peace with Russia, Iran, India and her Central Asia neighbors. There is ample cooperation and trust between them.”
Now Prof David Bromwich’s take on President Barack Obama’s speech. Bromwich warns that the revenge game in Afghanistan could become chillingly bloodier, and a never ending affair. (And, if I may add, this prediction could come true if the US troops’ surge is only meant to “eliminate” the “enemies” and not for the long-term geo-political and geo-strategic reasons. Also, how does Obama win the confidence of an average Afghan with so much collateral damage?)
Excerpts from David Bromwich’s (Professor of Literature at Yale) article: “From the President’s (Obama’s) West Point speech, one would not guess that he has reflected what our mere presence in West Asia does to increase the enchantment of violent resistance and to heat the anger that turns into terrorists people who have lost parents, children, cousins, clansmen, and friends to the Americans.
“Our war in the border regions is being fought by drone assassinations. A man at the control sits in front of a screen in Las Vegas, and fires when he has a certain shot. To a primitive mind (but not only to a primitive mind), this experiment on a country not our own has the trappings a video game played in hell.
“But the procedure was here embraced by the president in the antiseptic idiom of a practiced technocrat. He gave no sign of the effects of such killings by a foreign power out of reach in the sky.
“To assassinate one major operative, Baitullah Mehsud, as Jane Mayer showed in a recent article in the New Yorker, 16 strikes were necessary, over 14 months, killing a total of as many as 538 persons, of whom 200-300 were bystanders. What comes of the reputation of policemen in a crime-ridden neighborhood when they conduct themselves like that? And what makes anyone suppose the reaction will be less extreme when the policeman comes from another country?
“The total number of Muslims killed by Americans in revenge for the attacks of September 11th now numbers more than a hundred thousand. Of those, few were members of Al Qaeda, and few harbored any intention, for good or ill, toward the United States before we crossed the ocean as an occupying power.” More here…
Violence will likely increase in the spring after the harsh winter weather ends and troops begin clearing insurgent strongholds, Michael Vickers, an assistant secretary of Defense, said Tuesday night. Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told Congress on Wednesday that the Taliban had a “dominant influence” in 11 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. Read the USA Today story here…
The true number of civilians killed in the Afghan conflict will probably never be known. ISAF has only recently begun to count the numbers of civilians killed. The estimates are based on estimates provided by a range of agencies together with local and international press reports. Here is the BBC story…
And also here…
“Afghanistan is mission impossible”, says Sawaz A. George on CNN: “Obama has not been forthcoming with the American people about the diminishing nature of the threat posed by al Qaeda Central and like-minded factions.
“He has also bought the false, technical claim that the Afghan Taliban and Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda function more or less as a single entity. The Obama foreign policy views the Taliban, regressive and brutal at home, through the lens of al Qaeda and the global war on terror.
“While at the height of power in the late 1990s, al Qaeda was made up of about 3,000 to 4,000 terrorists. Today, bin Laden’s ranks are down to about 400 to 500. According to the most credible intelligence estimates, perhaps 100 al Qaeda operatives are in Afghanistan and another 300 in neighboring Pakistan.
“Does the presence of 100 al Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan, lethal as they are, justify the new military escalation and its inherent risks and costs? Shouldn’t the U.S. public be fully informed about the changing nature of the threat before plunging into another military venture?” More here…
“Obama’s Afghanistan war plan: How will he pay for it?” asks the Christian Science Monitor. “It will cost an additional $30 billion a year. Some antiwar Democrats in Congress talk of a ‘war tax,’ but the most likely option to fund Obama’s Afghanistan war plan is to keep borrowing.” More here…
To read my earlier post on “Afghanistan: Emerging US-India-Australia Alliance” please click here…
Swaraaj Chauhan describes his two-decade-long stint as a full-time journalist as eventful, purposeful, and full of joy and excitement. In 1993 he could foresee a different work culture appearing on the horizon, and decided to devote full time to teaching journalism (also, partly, with a desire to give back to the community from where he had enriched himself so much.)
Alongside, he worked for about a year in 1993 for the US State Department’s SPAN magazine, a nearly five-decade-old art and culture monthly magazine promoting US-India relations. It gave him an excellent opportunity to learn about things American, plus the pleasure of playing tennis in the lavish American embassy compound in the heart of New Delhi.
In !995 he joined WWF-India as a full-time media and environment education consultant and worked there for five years travelling a great deal, including to Husum in Germany as a part of the international team to formulate WWF’s Eco-tourism policy.
He taught journalism to honors students in a college affiliated to the University of Delhi, as also at the prestigious Indian Institute of Mass Communication where he lectured on “Development Journalism” to mid-career journalists/Information officers from the SAARC, African, East European and Latin American countries, for eight years.
In 2004 the BBC World Service Trust (BBC WST) selected him as a Trainer/Mentor for India under a European Union project. In 2008/09 He completed another European Union-funded project for the BBC WST related to Disaster Management and media coverage in two eastern States in India — West Bengal and Orissa.
Last year, he spent a couple of months in Australia and enjoyed trekking, and also taught for a while at the University of South Australia.
Recently, he was appointed as a Member of the Board of Studies at Chitkara University in Chandigarh, a beautiful city in North India designed by the famous Swiss/French architect Le Corbusier. He also teaches undergraduate and postgraduate students there.
He loves trekking, especially in the hills, and never misses an opportunity to play a game of tennis. The Western and Indian classical music are always within his reach for instant relaxation.
And last, but not least, is his firm belief in the power of the positive thought to heal oneself and others.