A Washington Post-ABC News poll has bad news for both parties — but the news for Republicans is worse so the net result is good news for the also sagging Democratic Party:
President Obama may be struggling with a bad economy and flagging poll numbers, but his party is still more popular than the alternative.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that 48 percent of people view the Democratic Party favorably, compared to just 40 percent who view Republicans in a good light.
In addition, recent polling has shown Democrats re-asserting a lead on the generic ballot, when voters are given a choice between a nameless Democrat and a nameless Republican.
What it reveals is a conservative electorate that is very excited about beating Obama, but not so excited about putting Republicans back in power.
If you view this against the context of the disarray now marking the GOP Presidential nomination race, it seems Republicans are close to frittering away a historic chance to re-take the White House. MORE:
In fact, neither party has much to brag about. The Democrats’ favorable rating is as low as it has been at any time since 1984, and the GOP has been stuck at about a 40 percent favorable rating for the better part of the last four years.
The fact that Democrats have a better image than Republicans is nothing new — this has historically been the case, and was even the case in the lead-up to big GOP gains in 2010 — but as both parties’ reputations continue to decline, it’s logical to ask whether anybody will be anxious to vote Republican in 2012.
Polling has shown a significant enthusiasm gap in the GOP’s favor — as big as it was in advance of the 2010 election — but this doesn’t seem to translate to the generic ballot and the favorable images of the two parties.Former Republican National Committeeman David Norcross said the distinction “may be result of president who can’t govern but can campaign. But it won’t hold up for Democrats in a presidential election where Obama, not the Republican Congress, will tell the tale.”
GOP strategist Dan Hazelwood told The Fix that the GOP’s low favorable number has a lot to do with the tea party, whose members often bristle at the party label and don’t like what the party establishment stands for. So while they might be reliable and enthusiastic voters for GOP candidates, they still view the party unfavorably.
He also said the Republican brand is largely hypothetical, given the lack of a presidential nominee.
“Voters will weigh that candidate as a credible alternative to Obama,” Hazelwood said. “If they find the Republican credible, then Obama is doomed if people think he can’t lead us out of this mess.”
Even as the GOP brand has kept about a 40 percent favorable rating in recent years, the number who strongly approve of the party has dropped from 19 percent in Feb. 2010 to 13 percent today — a reflection that the enthusiasm behind the brand isn’t what it used to be.
The GOP enthusiasm seems to lie right now almost exclusively behind beating Obama, rather than electing Republican candidates.
Hatred if harnessed correctly in politics can be useful — but it also can be self-destructive. And it looks like that’s what unfolding here. The key in future months will be to watch Republican political heavyweights such as Karl Rove, Haley Barbour, Jeb Bush and others. Do these members of the Republican establishment seem to be able to exert some influence in the Republican Party and keep it fixated on the big prize (winning the White House and Congress) or will it seem as if Rush Limbaugh and the Tea Party are (still) in control? And, if so, what do the numbers show when it comes to independent voters?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.