When you look at new CBS poll numbers you realize not only the depth of the plunge in President George Bush’s support — Judge Samuel Alito’s nomination to the Supreme Court has not yet driven them up — but that he’s in deep trouble if you compare him to his predecessors.
Note to readers: in earlier versions the important paragraph below was invadvertently cut:
The raw numbers are way into the danger zone: Bush has a 35 percent approval rating and a 57 percent disapproval rating.
Why is this happening? Taken all together you have to conclude that there is a kind of nebulous “middle” in American politics. This middle may shift a bit more to the left or right. But it’s clear if you read these polls in detail that Bush — despite the insistence of many of his more conservative supporters — has now veered substantially away from it.
And he’s increasingly paying a political price.
The first CBS piece is this that says, among other things:
(CBS) Most Americans believe someone in the Bush Administration did leak Valerie Plame’s name to reporters – even though Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald indicted no one for doing that. Half of the public describes the matter as something of great importance to the country, and this poll finds low assessments of both the President and the Vice President – with the President’s overall approval rating dropping again to its lowest point ever.
And then there’s this:
The nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court has had minimal impact so far, and assessments of the war in Iraq remain negative – with more than ever before saying the Administration was less than honest in discussing their reasons for war.
There is one less dark spot — perhaps reflecting lower gas prices, far fewer now than one month ago are pessimistic about the future of the economy.
There is SO MUCH in this poll that you need to click on the link to read all of it yourself.
The CBS poll results suggest that this is an administration increasingly out of sync with mainstream America — one that may own the power of America but, at this point, does not own heart of America.
It HAD American’s heart immediately after 9/11, but its pugnacious governing style coupled with concessions to social conservatives sparked a virtual evacuation of independents and moderates, as polls have shown in recent months.
But even WORSE for Bush is another CBS article, this one comparing Bush to his predecessors.
Bush’s low job approval is far below that of some of his two-term predecessors at this point in their second terms. In November 1985, President Reagan had a 65 percent approval rating, and Bill Clinton’s job approval in November 1997 was 57 percent. Bush’s rating is higher than Richard Nixon’s was at the same point in his administration.
Once again, click on the poll to read the details.
This begs the question: is going back to the basics of playing to his party’s base such as in the Alito nomination to the Supreme Court going to be enough for Bush to recoup? Or does he need to do something more? (Some pundits and officials in recent days have been quoted in various news reports urging GWB to make some big changes in personnel and direction in his administration but so far at the White House it’s no dice).
And, even if his support raises a bit due to Alito (and there’s no indication in this poll that it has yet), how likely is that to regain the support of non-GOPers who also played a role in electing Bush in two elections?
Are we seeing Bush in his second term stuck in the Benny’s Bargain Basement of political support — with no stairway to go up?
You had to add to this, in all fairness to Alito: so far news stories reporting his meetings with Senators find Senators impressed with him. So a filibuster on him is not only not certain but possibly even unlikely. In the end, he could continue being a wash on Bush’s numbers, unless his foes can aggressively make (and prove) the case that he is militantly anti-abortion.
But Bush’s MAIN PROBLEM is this:
He has NOT governed as a “uniter” at all but as a “divider” in what Karl Rove has described as “mobilization” elections where the goal is to motivate and turn out his party’s base. Meanwhile, on many issues, his administration is increasingly suffering from a terminal political disease that ended the careers of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon and damaged these leaders’ parties: a credibility gap.
A larger issue reflected in these polls is this: it’s often said that Americans seem to value divided government where one party doesn’t control all branches. If people feel the way that polls suggest they do, then is it likely that in 2006 many Americans will feel that the best government is a divided government — one that is not in the hands of a single political party…that this experiment in giving one party virtually all of the power has fostered inefficiency and corruption?
So, how can Bush reverse these numbers?
What can he do to turn it around?
And will he be helped by such GOP leaders as Senator Bill Frist and Rep. Tom DeLay in doing it?
NOTE TO READERS: Never forget that these polls are like see-saws, although clearly GWB is getting more saw than see. Also, partisans on both sides will go after the methodology of polls that don’t favor their side (and cite the same company’s poll if it shows their person in a good light).
UPDATE: And Bush is looking haggard.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.