In recent hours, the US is being forced to back down in the UN Security Council because Israel seems unable to destroy Hizbullah on the battlefield despite steadfast support from Washington.
It looks as if the Security Council, emasculated by years of US and Israeli scorn, may not be able to soon deliver the durable peace now so vital for Israel’s security. There may be a resolution within days but an unsatisfactory one from Israel’s viewpoint.
The core issue is how to dismantle Hizbullah’s state within a state. Through its war, Israel is trying to cripple Hizbullah so that Lebanon’s other political groups can force it to disarm and renounce violence completely. No well-informed analyst thinks that is achievable at this time, whatever the war’s outcome.
The bad news is that unless the UN Security Council pulls a rabbit from the hat, Israel faces the near certainty of sinking deeper into the quagmire of South Lebanon.
Everybody understands that Israel cannot be secure without drastic political changes within Lebanon. The US insists that those changes happen before Israel ceases fire and be underpinned by an international army in South Lebanon with orders to fight Hizbullah as necessary.
But an EU decision kicked Washington in the shins this week. America’s key European allies, Britain and Germany, both joined France to call for an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations for a peace settlement. International soldiers would enter Lebanon after that settlement and there would be no need to fight Hizbullah.
Isolated, the US was forced to move closer to this EU position but that is not enough. Russia and China are still on the fence. Both are against using the Lebanon issue to chastise Iran although it is Hizbullah’s chief ally. And they do not want Lebanon to fall completely under Western influence. They are looking for ways to keep their foot in the door of the entire region.
In any event, nothing can be imposed on South Lebanon without Hizbullah’s agreement. Israel seems to think that pushing Hizbullah fighters beyond the Litany river is enough because international soldiers will enter the vacuum and stop Hizbullah from returning. That is wishful thinking.
Israel, which knows every inch of the terrain, is not able to stop the Hizbullah from the air, land and sea. How could soldiers from Turkey, India, Indonesia or elsewhere do that? They will be a few thousand infantry and armoured corps without tens of helicopters and planes brimming with the latest US-made missiles. They will certainly not have the IDF’s fighting skills or leading edge command and control equipment.
Most countries other than America and Britain do not agree that Israel is fighting to keep them safe against global terrorism. They see Israel as trying to make itself safe. Why would any democracy anger voters by taking casualties in Lebanon for Israel’s sake without significant bilateral quid pro quo from Tel Aviv?
Israel’s closest supporters, the US, Britain and Germany, have already said they will not enter Lebanon although they have the best-equipped soldiers. France is the only major military power willing to send troops provided that they are not expected to kill Hizbullah fighters.
Israel and the US want to use the Lebanon war to neutralize Iran and Syria as well. That makes getting a meaningful Security Council consensus capable of delivering peace that much harder.
France is working closely with the US to stop Iran from developing nuclear fuel technologies. It will support sanctions through the Security Council if necessary. But it will avoid linking the Hizbullah issue with the nuclear issue in handling Iran even if that displeases Washington.
Meanwhile, Israel’s quagmire deepens. Without international help, neither the US nor Israel can change the political order in Lebanon or halt Iranian and Syrian interference. That help is in short supply because very few governments trust Israeli and American narratives and methods on this one. Most governments fear the US so they avoid contradicting it. But helping is another matter.