Former Senator Gary Hart says don’t be surprised if preemptive war with Iran starts before the November elections.
Is any discussion about an “October surprise” basically speculative, paranoid nonsense? Or is there any substance to the claim that this will happen? Here’s some history.
TMV’s view:
Just ignoring Iran is not an option. In looking at Iran’s actions (work on nuclear energy), its President’s comments (questioning the Holocaust, suggesting Israel move and basically vowing to eliminate it), its role in fomenting and enabling terrorism (long-noted in many articles on international terrorism), plus factoring in the domestic-political-consumption component (Iran’s president does have to run for re-election and a certain amount of the rhetoric is for political impact — but a certain amount sounds like it is NOT), it is clear that the international community and/or the U.S. and perhaps Israel will have to act at some point.
If there is any kind of a military operation right before the elections, it will automatically undermine the credibility of the operation. It could help the GOP retain control of Congress, but it could also turn off independent voters. And even if the GOP retained control of Congress, the international cynicism and that of local administration critics will be hardened. It’s hard to imagine two years of an administration supported almost exclusively by its party’s base and talk-show listeners.
Those on the far left who pooh-pooh the threat of Iran ignore the threat posed by Iran and importance of, at a minimum, containing the threat. And those on the right who dream of a military operation before the elections — or those who possibly might be planning one — ignore the fact that any military operation that took place before the election would lose some of the support it might have if it came in November after the elections.
There would be short-term electoral gain and long-term loss of credibility to the reputation of serious American policy-making and to the credibility of the institution of the Presidency itself.
When you read reports suggesting Iran is going to be the October surprise you wonder: how can anyone be so stupid as to do that and be so blatant? The day after the elections, we’ll know if someone was.
UPDATE: Winds of Change’s Armed Liberal thinks Hart has gone off the deep end on this one…and we agree with what he says. Such as this:
But politically, in the current environment – absent a YouTube video of Ahmadinejad personally machining plutonium hemispheres while pointing to a map of Washington DC – I can’t imagine that the US political reaction would be survivable for the GOP. And that once the Democrats were sworn in in January, that Bush would then be looking at some serious face time with the Judiciary Committee.
So, Gary – what the hell? Do you think Karl Rove is that stupid?
—Ed Morrissey details why these October surprise scenarios are highly unlikely.
—The Glittering Eye:”And to those who believe that George Bush will act against Iran without weighing these political considerations: don’t be childish. Politicians who achieve high political office don’t get there without weighing the political considerations.”
—Polimom thinks there could be a strike on Iran but thinks it would be for a reason other than politics and at a slightly different time.
—Blue Crab Boulevard:”We will have to do something about Iran. I rather doubt this will be the October surprise, however.”
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.