Are America’s Democrats poised to do what they have done so many times before: blow the presidential race when they are widely expected to win?
Introducing his U.S. election forecast, Ilya Fortún, writing for Bolivia’s left-leaning daily, La Razon, writes in part:
“The North American Democratic Party is poised to become a political miracle-maker. You’ll be tempted to think that the miracle would be elevating a Black (sorry, African-American is the politically correct term) to the presidency of the most powerful country in the world. Nope. I was referring instead to the miracle of causing another Republican to succeed the most ill-fated and unpopular administration in living memory. The ill-fated part is my own; but the unpopular part is a global opinion which is shared by the Yankee electorate . I don’t remember the exact numbers, but the popularity polls crown our dear George W. with the incredible achievement of being more detested than Richard Nixon himself during his period of even greater disgrace.”
He then points out that there are two main issues in the U.S. election, Iraq and the economy. On both he says McCain will get the better of Obama.
Explaining why he thinks McCain will dominate Obama on Iraq, Fortún writes:
“While the Americans have realized that the war has been a fraud induced by powerful interests which led them to commit an injustice, I think over time they will become more inclined to giving the mandate for making for a dignified withdrawal to a man who has the credentials of a war hero, rather than to someone who simply opposed the invasion. They need someone to put an end the conflict and that, furthermore, will allow them to think that victory was achieved.”
By Ilya Fortún*
Translated By Halszka Czarnocka
June 12, 2008
Bolivia – La Razon – Original Article (Spanish)
The North American Democratic Party is poised to become a political miracle-maker. You’ll be tempted to think that the miracle would be elevating a Black (sorry, African-American is the politically correct term) to the presidency of the most powerful country in the world. Nope. I was referring instead to the miracle of causing another Republican to succeed the most ill-fated and unpopular administration in living memory. The ill-fated part is my own; but the unpopular part is a global opinion which is shared by the Yankee electorate . I don’t remember the exact numbers, but the popularity polls crown our dear George W. with the incredible achievement of being more detested than Richard Nixon himself during his period of even greater disgrace.
I have already won several half-bottles of whisky betting friends that Obama would beat Hillary in the primaries and that John McCain will defeat Obama in the actual election. I base my prognosis on mere intuition, since U.S. politics has always seemed more boring to me than sucking on a nail. I have the impression, watching the process from afar, that this time the Democratic primaries were a kind of first round [Many countries, including Bolivia, have two rounds of voting if neither candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote in the first round]. Just as in other countries, the first round serves to allow voters to express their ideological positions. Democratic primary voters registered a strong vote of protest against the political system; the power of lobbyists in Washington; and the disproportionate influence of large corporations in politics. There seem to have been a sudden upwelling which has translated into a demand for change.
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