A strategic shift in the balances that are currently keeping the peace between Russia and the West may be triggered at the G8 Summit in Germany from June 6-8, 2007.
At first glance, the Summit looks innocent enough with German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeking attention for climate change and more equity in global economic relations between rich and poor countries. She is trying to steer clear of the emerging sets of strategic uncertainties menacing the horizon. But tensions are palpable and her skilful footwork may fail.
Chief among those uncertainties are the Western bloc’s relationships with Russia and Iran. A recent mini-Summit between the conservative Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended coolly because of Merkel’s desire not to irritate President George Bush and a large swathe of US Congress that mistrusts Russia.
However, Putin is not backing down. Just days before the Summit, he has issued clear threats that American plans to place the kernel of an anti-missile shield in Europe may force him to reassess Russia’s entire strategic relationship with the NATO alliance and withdraw from an important arms limitation agreement.
The West is watching Putin’s increasing assertiveness with concern as Russia fattens on high oil and gas prices and tries to regain some of the geopolitical clout it lost completely after the Soviet Union’s collapse.
Putin is creating apprehension because of his apparent determination to use oil and gas as political pressure points on Western, Eastern and Central Europe, which depend heavily on Russian supplies. The dependence varies from 25% to 60% depending on the country.
After a period of apparent acquiescence, Russia is now snarling about NATO’s encroachment on the former Soviet Union’s neighbourhood. Putin appears to have lost trust in the long-term benign intentions of the US and Europe towards the reemergence of Russia as a major economic power. He suspects the West of trying to encircle and smother it by giving, among other things, NATO and European Union membership to all countries on its Western borders. That membership brings security and the promise of economic help to those countries, making them less susceptible to pressure from the Russian bear.
Putin also thinks that the US is trying to take advantage of Russia’s strategic weakness by starting installation of the anti-missile shield, which will make Europe less vulnerable to attacks from any sources, including Russia. Of course, the shield as currently conceived is powerless against Russia but it will open the door to future reinforcement.
The crucial point is that Western Europe is losing Putin’s trust and from that situation a new low key Cold War is a short step. If Russian apprehensions are confirmed in coming months, the entire global strategic balance will start to change. Of course, Putin’s Russia remains a quasi police state with a notorious penchant for stomping on human rights and press freedoms. But the wisdom of criticizing it too stridently is questionable.
There are many differences between European leaders and the Bush White House on Russia but suspicion of Putin’s intentions is growing. All the new EU members from Central and East Europe do not trust Russia. Embittered by life under the Soviet heel, they think the Russian leopard cannot change its spots whatever the regime in Moscow.
Therefore, they are huddling with the European Union, under NATO’s military protection, and are ferociously opposed to letting Russia increase its economic and military weight in European affairs. To this end, they are using their influence with the EU, where important decisions on foreign and external trade policy must have the support of all members.
If tensions between the EU and Russia do not decrease in coming months, the West will face humiliation in its relations with Iran and Serbia. Concerning Iran, Russian cooperation is essential to coerce Tehran into giving up its insistence on acquiring nuclear technology that might later be used to make weapons. If Russia vetoes Western attempts in the UN Security Council in June to punish Tehran for intransigence, Tehran will claim victory in facing down the combined political power of the US and Europe.
Russian involvement in Serbia over Kosovo is even more potentially troublesome for the West. The US and EU have accepted a plan to give Kosovo full independence within a few years if approved by the Security Council in coming weeks.
Serbia fervently opposes independence and insists that the West is violating earlier promises not to let Kosovo break away formally from Serbia. Kosovo is already independent in the sense that Belgrade has no voice in its daily affairs although on paper it remains a province of Serbia. If Russia uses its veto when the issue comes before the Security Council, it will hurt the Western bloc’s prestige since the European members of NATO are currently policing Kosovo.
The Summit is probably the last chance to deal with Russia ahead of the forthcoming Security Council votes on Iran and Kosovo.