Guest post by Jessie Daniels
Jessie Daniels is a fellow at the Truman National Security Project. She is currently a second-year masters candidate at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. From 2003 to 2007, she served as a legislative aide for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), focusing on national security issues.
President Obama recently unveiled a comprehensive new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, calling for an increase of 21,000 troops and a civilian surge to achieve success in a troubled region. Success on the home front, however, will require keeping the sustained support of the public through this endeavor. This depends on ensuring that the American public is ready for what is ahead.
Successfully stabilizing Afghanistan and Pakistan will undeniably be a long and arduous process. The security situation in Afghanistan remains precarious. Pakistan’s unstable and nuclear-armed status, along with its unwillingness to adequately crack down on insurgents within its territory, presents a serious obstacle to US long-term goals in the region. As well, civilian capabilities needed to carry out the surge have not been developed in full and our NATO partners seem reluctant to provide them.
At the same time, the economy is suffocating all other news stories from the front page. Last week, General Petraeus and administration officials testified on Capitol Hill about the Af/Pak strategy, how Afghanistan is now the new central front in the war on terror, and benchmarks for success. Just a few years ago, a hearing like this on Iraq would have dominated headlines. Instead, this one was relegated to the middle of the newspaper by news of the global financial crisis.
Preparing the public for the long road ahead in Afghanistan and Pakistan at a time when Americans are more worried about losing their homes and paying the mortgage will be a challenging proposition for the President. And while polls may indicate general support for the war, there is an unease that lies beneath. According to a February 2009 Gallup poll, at least 60 percent of Americans support a continued US troop presence in Afghanistan for the next two or more years. That same poll, however, found that a majority of Americans (54%) believed that US should be focused on a more limited approach in Afghanistan, with the primary US goal in Afghanistan being to weaken the terrorists’ ability to carry out attacks instead of a nation-building effort.
Furthermore, there may be backlash on the Afghan side too. Corruption is perceived as a major problem across Afghanistan, according to the Asia Society’s “Afghanistan in 2008” survey and an inability to curb corruption in the country could hamper US efforts to build up Afghan institutions. Additionally, an increased security force may lead to more Afghan civilian deaths and destruction, and cause the population to lose support for the mission.
Failure to lay the groundwork now for what the public should expect with regard to Af/Pak strategy may have serious consequences later if the administration is faced with the difficult decisions that may be on the horizon. The administration could decide to send an additional 10,000 troops to Afghanistan in the fall should the security situation fail to show significant turnaround in the next few months. How will Americans feel about shouldering an increasing burden if our allies continue their reluctance to share that burden? And what will the effect be on our military and their families if civilian capabilities cannot be developed as fast as they are needed and the military is called upon to carry out these duties?
The President could use the upcoming trilateral meetings between the US, Afghanistan, and Pakistan next month as a catalyst to start engaging in an open and recurrent manner with the public about the challenges we face in carrying out a successful Af/Pak strategy. Unwarranted optimism, such as the kind we saw from the Bush administration on Iraq, tends to undermine public support. President Obama must not make that mistake. Additionally, articulating a clear endgame will go a long way toward keeping the public on board. Establishing clear markers that Congress – and the public – understands is the first step in this process.
President Obama has pledged to “stay on the offensive” in Afghanistan, but he will need the sustained support of the crowd to win the war. In a climate where it is the Economy, the Economy, the Economy, this will undoubtedly be a harder sell, but it is a sale worth making.