What’s the ground look like in California right now for the primary candidates? For one thing, it’s a pretty blue state, even if we’re talking about Michael Bloomberg. From the California Progress Report:
In a dizzying week of polls on all subjects near and dear to our state’s voters, today’s offering from the California Field Poll showing that only one in four California registered voters would even consider voting for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg if he were to run for President sends a clear message.
62% of the voters in the largest state in the nation, according to Field, say they “would definitely not support him.” [Emphasis added] This includes 68% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans and even a slight plurality of “non-partisan/others) would not countenance the thought.
…
When asked if a Bloomberg independent candidacy would be a good thing or bad thing, California’s registered voters are perhaps a bit more charitable, but they are all over the lot. 29% thin it is a good thing, 33% a bad thing, and 38% don’t know. Democrats and Republicans agree it’s a bad thing or don’t know, and the non-partisan/others seem to like the idea 47% to 17% with 36% of this most favorable group towards his candidacy saying they don’t know.
Regarding the Democrats, most of the information available pre-dates last night’s big win by Barack Obama in South Carolina. However, the indecision that pundits and analysts believe to be the rule rather than the exception seems overwhelming.
California Progress Report covered poll numbers that were released on Friday. Specifically, they wrote:
The Public Policy Institute of California has released a poll today that shows Hillary Clinton has a lead of 43% to 28% in the Democratic primary in California amongst expected voters. The poll is generally in alignment with the California Field Poll released earlier in the week that had Clinton at a 39% to 27% advantage. Nevertheless, when asked about the volatility of the electorate in races in other states and the possible effect of the South Carolina primary, PPIC President Mark Baldassare told me, “It just isn’t settled on the Democratic or Republican said.” He indicted other primary state results have a big impact on California voters and “We’re getting our news from other states.”
Note the caveat given for “the possible effect of the South Carolina primary.” I would say, “Oh yeah,” to that. You can read the Public Policy Institute of California‘s poll here.
The New Politics Institute fingers new millenials and independents as holding the most power when February 5th’s primary arrives. Why? Because:
California has huge numbers of independents who can ONLY vote in the Democratic primary. The Republican primary is closed to only registered Republicans. So even Independents who might want to vote for McCain only have the option to vote Democrat, and the candidate who clearly does best among independents is Obama.
and
Large numbers of young people are now registered to vote in California and because they are new to the game, they are less clearly understood. Our New Politics Institute has done much work on this generation and it seems clear that they are more energized by an Obama candidacy at this point. So a critical issue going into he Feb. 5th contest will be the youth turnout, and the margin that goes for Obama.
Simon Rosenberg of the New Policy Institute (and former member of Bill Clinton’s 1992 “War Room”) explores these factors in more depth here. When it comes to California, he believes that:
Hillary goes into California with an advantage, but not a big one. The last poll in the state had it 39-27, leaving a great deal of California voters undecided, which means that this thing is still wide open. Obama has a powerful support base in the state, and, as has been noted, independents can only vote on the Democratic side in this primary, creating an electorate more in Barack’s favor. Hillary however has what may be the ultimate trump card – Hispanics – who are now 20 percent of the statewide vote. I don’t really know who wins here, but again assume a great deal of candidate time, what’s left of the respective media budgets, and Obama making a much bigger play for Hispanics to keep HRC from running up her numbers there as she did in Nevada. If she replicates her 68-24 NV spread with Hispanics in CA it may give her the state and end up being another critical moment in her march towards the nomination.
Some pundits today (Sunday, the day after South Carolina), have already noted how often Obama referenced Latinos in his SC speech last night. Juxtapose that with Rosenberg’s note on Hispanics.
Them there’s a lot of states on that there one day. My Ouija board predicts a blogging explosion around the political ‘sphere as we try to figure it all out, for all of us.
UPDATE: The Daily Dish picks up something from Mark Halperin on the Kennedy endorsement, its importance for California and Hispanics.
UPDATE x2: More analysis from “ground zero” California.