(For additional comments, see the pre-debate post over at my place. We’ll have a post-debate post up later as well.)
So. It’s 1-1 and tonight’s the rubber match, right? The all-important tiebreaker.
That’s the way the media will treat it, and perhaps even a few of those all-important “undecideds” as well, and while it’s easy to make fun of a political process treated like a sporting event, that’s just the reality we live in. Sad as that is.
Generally, this should be solid terrain for President Obama. He has been strong on national security and foreign policy during his first term — among other things, rebuilding America’s key alliances, taking out Osama bin Laden, ending the Iraq War, supporting the overthrow of Gaddafi, carefully managing the American response to the Arab Spring, imposing tough sanctions on Iran (forcing the Iranians to the negotiating table), addressing the dangers of nuclear arsenals left over from the Cold War, and planning the end of the Afghan War while providing focus and purpose there that was previously lacking.
Meanwhile, Romney has been a simple-minded jingoist (like saber-rattling about Iran, implying that he’d start another war), politicizing crises and tragedies (like the Benghazi attack), showing a complete lack of understanding of diplomacy and international relations (like calling Russia America’s #1 enemy and talking with bullying bluster about China, even though he has profited hugely from his various business connections there) and generally being an embarrassment on the national stage (like on his summer trip to England, Poland, and Israel, when he managed even to alientate the British with his stupid comments about the London Olympics). And let us not forget that he said the U.S. shouldn’t go after bin Laden and continues to assert that the U.S. should still be in Iraq and that the Afghan War should continue indefinitely.
And it should all be fairly predictable. Romney signalled where he’s coming from, and pretty much the entirely of his (lack of) understanding of foreign policy with his widely-panned speech at VMI a couple of weeks ago. Ryan did the same last month. Here’s the playbook:
We’ve lost four of our diplomats. And what is the signal that our government is sending the rest of the world? We’re being equivocal on our values, we’re being slow to speak up for individual rights, for human rights, for democracy. We’re seeing countries stifle freedom in Iran, in Russia, and all these other areas. And we’re saying we’re going to gut our military — that projects weakness.
Obama should be able to respond to all this, and much more, with effective answers that project his knowledge and leadership.
But, of course, these things aren’t really about substance, as we all know by now, even if, as in the last debate, substance can break through (like when Romney was exposed as an offensive ignoramus on Libya). The media, as usual, will focus on style, and it’s hard to know how the debate will play out on those terms. Yes, the president should be able to look and sound like a leader with a solid record and a firm grasp of complex issues, but in foreign policy jingoistic bluster often (usually) trumps knowledge and leadership, and so there’s an opening for Romney to keep hammering home his talking points (lies) about Obama apologizing for America, allowing Iran’s nuclear program to proceed, alienating Israel, and generally being weak.
That’s all the opposite of the truth, of course, but the risk is that he gets away with it, particularly with a format (like the first, not the second) and a moderator (Bob Schieffer, who will play it safe, meaning his style will benefit Romney) that will not just restrict interaction between the two candidates but prevent the truth from emerging from the fray. Like last week, the president needs to call him on his lies and distortions without being overly aggressive (he can’t do what Biden did), while making sure he speaks with confidence and determination about his strong record.
Perhaps tonight’s debate won’t move the needle much at all. It’s easy to see this as a draw and the race remaining insanely close. But it’s also easy to see this being the deciding factor. If Obama comes out like he did in the first debate, the race may well be over. But if he comes out strong, and it plays out like the second debate, he may just get the boost he needs to bring it home over the final two weeks.
Needless to say, I’m nervous, anxious, worried, terrified. So much can go wrong. But Obama does have what it takes, both in terms of what he has done and who he is, to “win” this thing tonight and thereby to remind voters that the choice between the two candidates is stark: leadership and wisdom and a strong America prepared for the challenges of the 21st century on his side, inexperience and recklessness and warmongering on the other. This is what he needs to project tonight, both in style and substance.