Will Bloomberg Run–and Can He Win?
The news media are a-twitter about the possibility of an all-New York race for the White House in 2008. Hillary Clinton (D) versus Rudy Giuliani (R) versus Michael Bloomberg (I) would somehow validate the Empire State (and the media’s headquarters city). After all, it’s been 64 years since New York could claim the major contenders (Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt and GOP New York Gov. Thomas E. Dewey in 1944). Since ’44, New Yorkers have been bust in the presidential process, including Dewey again in 1948, Nelson Rockefeller in 1960 and 1964, Bobby Kennedy in 1968 (only because of an assassin’s bullet), John Lindsay in 1972 and Mario Cuomo in 1992. Note to observant readers: we’re not including minor candidates here, nor do we count Eisenhower as a New Yorker in 1952 or Nixon as one in 1968. Yes, Ike’s last U.S. address before the Presidency was New York-he had served as President of Columbia University before becoming Supreme Allied Commander of NATO in Europe–but Ike was born in Texas and reared in Kansas; he was no New Yorker. Similarly, Nixon was technically a NYC resident, where he had practiced law since losing the California Governorship in 1962; still, Nixon was a Californian through and through.
Well, your Crystal Ball will just say flatly that the odds are heavily against such an all-New York contest. Not only might Clinton and Giuliani lose their respective party nods, but it is far from certain that Bloomberg is running. Antipathy to New York–once at a fever pitch because of its left-wing politics and ungovernable nature–has faded greatly in the wake of September 11th. Yet there isn’t a torrid love affair with the city and state raging across the country either.
As for Mayor Bloomberg, he’s understandably enjoying the beginning of what will be a prolonged strip-tease. A week ago he showed a little ankle out in California at a conference with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and one would have thought the press corps was sex-starved. Despite nearly a couple dozen other candidates already wooing the press, Bloomberg was given the political equivalent of free money stuffed in his expensively tailored suit by dewy-eyed journalists who showered him with front page coverage. All Bloomberg did was change his party registration from Republican to Unaffiliated, which he had earlier transformed from Democrat to Republican so that he could find a way to become Mayor in 2001. Party has never meant much to Bloomberg; for him, choosing one is the equivalent of selecting a team in a pick-up game, where you scout the prospects and try to side with the eventual winners.
The reality is that the press and a good deal of the public are already bored with the announced 2008 players. It’s easy to see why: the debates so far have mainly been yawners, with the candidates in each party falling all over themselves to be inoffensive and (with a few notable exceptions) unwilling to challenge party orthodoxy.
Enter Michael Bloomberg. He’s a sane Ross Perot, an Independent that many could see serving a term in the White House without constant angst. He’s got significant executive experience. Governing New York City is no picnic, and by many accounts he’s done it better than Rudy Giuliani in some respects. He’s extra-filthy-stinking rich in an era that worships excess, and unlike Perot–who was actually quite stingy with his billionaire wallet–Bloomberg would almost certainly spend between a half billion and a billion dollars on any presidential race he ran.
Perhaps most of all, there is a quiet desperation among many thinking members of the press and public about the divisive polarization that exists in the nation, and has existed throughout the Presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Almost everyone who follows politics closely can easily see the major parties nominating candidates who will continue and perhaps deepen that polarization (Hillary Clinton and the current incarnation of liberal-turned moderate-turned conservative Mitt Romney jump immediately to mind). Bloomberg is perceived as a possible way out.
So will he run?
For the 4th of July, Larry Sabato suggests that each of us re-read the Constitution of the United States. We can do that, among other places, at Justice Learning.Org‘s Guide to the Constitution.
For a Jewish view of the Constitution, Hillel Foundation has Text Studies posted on the Preamble to the Constitution and the First Amendment of the Bill of Rights.