I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of several make-up posts.
06/12/2008
Rhodes Cook’s PRIMARY CONCERNS: McCain, Obama have some base building to do
For the first time in 40 years, the Democrats and Republicans are each on the verge of nominating a candidate who failed to attract even half of their party’s primary vote.
Counting fully sanctioned, half sanctioned, and non-binding primaries, Barack Obama took 47 percent of this year’s Democratic vote and was matched virtually ballot for ballot by his tenacious rival, Hillary Clinton. In the process, Obama raised considerable doubt as to whether he can consolidate the portions of the Democratic base – women, working-class whites and Hispanics – that went overwhelmingly for Clinton.
But the ability to hold together the party base is a question that also can be asked of the Republicans’ presumptive nominee, John McCain. He too this year drew a modest 47 percent of the GOP primary vote, the lowest share ever for a Republican nominee since the primary-oriented nominating process took root in the 1970s. The Arizona senator showed particular weakness in the GOP heartland – losing much of the South to Mike Huckabee and a large swath of the Rocky Mountain region to Mitt Romney.