The old saying “It ain’t over till it’s over” is nowhere more evident in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll which now puts Republican Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain within 5 points of frontrunner Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.
Pollster John Zogby attributes it to McCain getting back on message:
Republican John McCain continues to gain on Democrat Barack Obama, reducing Obama’s lead to 5.3 points with just over a week to go before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.
The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.
The key in polls is to watch the trends. In the Zogby poll, at least, McCain is showing steady gains. Zogby writes:
There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today’s single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain’s gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.[Zogby’s boldface..]
On the other hand, the average of polls still shows Obama’s lead outside the margin of error. Real Clear Politics’ respected average polls gives Obama a 7.8 percent lead.
A storm cloud on the horizon for McCain in the final week: the continued focus on the comments of Vice President Sarah Palin and an increasing number of reports about tensions with the McCain staff. The latest is a New York Post article which contains this:
The last straw for the vice-presidential candidate was the raft of criticism from the $150,000 worth of high-end clothes the Republican National Committee bought her, a campaign source said.
Palin showed how much that gaffe got under her skin yesterday at a rally in Sioux City, Iowa, telling the crowd she’d stepped off the plane and donned a warm, cream-colored jacket.
“And it’s my own jacket,” she said.
A McCain insider told The Post that relations between Palin and some of the campaign aides with her have soured. “She’s lost faith with the staff. She knows the $150,000- wardrobe story damaged her,” the insider said.
But the novice vice-presidential candidate is partly to blame, the campaign official sniped. “She’s an adult. She didn’t ask questions about where the clothes came from?” the source said.
“She’s now positioning herself for her own future. Of course, this is bad for John. It looks like no one is in charge.”
Palin is not likely to roll over and let herself be scapegoated if things don’t go well on Nov. 4.
“She’s a lot savvier, politically speaking, than people give her credit for,” said a GOP strategist.
“Everyone is trying to distance themselves from responsibility.
For McCain to rise in the polls he needs a cohesive message, needs to stay on message, and needs press coverage of his campaign to focus on the message — not have his main message stepped on. Print newshole is finite and broadcast impact depends on the placement of news stories. McCain’s prime message can be drowned out if any more days are spent with new and/or old media focus on Palin, her clothes, her feelings towards the McCain operatives who’ve been in charge of her political persona, or stories before the vote about how the McCain and Palin camps are getting ready to place the blame for a defeat that has not happened yet.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.