Russia’s Vladimir Putin thought he could use Ukraine’s stumbles to reinforce his dictatorial hold over the Russian people by showing how tough he can be when crossed. He has hit embarrassing roadblocks.
President Barack Obama has foiled some of those ambitions and placed hurdles on any attempt to swallow large parts of Ukraine through military action. It is now time to wind down the US-Russia arm wrestle before a cornered Putin reaches for steroids.
Obama is caught with a weak hand and would do well to avoid longer-lasting entanglement. Major countries around the world vital for US foreign policy success in other regions are waiting to see whether he or Putin blinks first. The longer both circle, the easier it becomes for others to make hay.
Whatever the truths about the confused situation in Ukraine and Crimea – there is an abyss in perceptions between Obama and Putin. Their tough rhetoric is reinforcing collision and America’s enemies are waiting vigilantly in the wings to score their small gains as the two Sumo snatch at each other.
Ukraine always was and remains a situation that can be solved only by internal accommodation among its various ethnic, linguistic and political groups. But Secretary of State John Kerry catapulted it into a US-Russia confrontation by bluntly branding Russian actions in Crimea as invasion and occupation. Obama raised the temperature by threatening serious consequences for Russia.
The wise course now would be to deflate the confrontation. One way is to switch off threats and rhetoric regardless of Putin’s aggressive words. That would help to create the atmosphere necessary for Putin to step out of his cage and cooperate with real political will for a joint US/Europe/Russia solution to Ukraine.
The need is for all three to put intense pressure simultaneously on everyone within Ukraine to reach the necessary hard compromises. The current acting government in Kiev may have misunderstood EU and American intentions when they overthrew the pro-Russian regime. They thought the West would rescue them from Russian aggression by providing money and weapons, when push came to shove. So they overplayed their hand.
The US-Russia clash should be transformed to close cooperation to force Ukrainian politicians to come to their senses. Such an unexpected example of sagacity would help to keep both US and Russian prestige intact and encourage a more stable world order.
To everyone’s surprise, Obama stumbled into confrontation with Putin over a chaotic country that has almost no significance for US foreign policy. However, the confrontation is immensely significant for geopolitics because it will determine whether the US under Obama is still perceived as king of the hill or its political influence is reduced on par with the European Union, Russia or China.
Perhaps, the White House will surprise everyone by finding a diverse range of sanctions to punish Putin and his supporters in Ukraine. The EU may even stand by Obama’s sanctions.
But the worse the sanctions, the more damage will occur to the West’s relations with Putin’s Russia. Perhaps some think that Russia’s power could be whittled away until it chooses to become a friend or even ally of the US and Western Europe. That is wishful thinking because most of the Russian Federation is in Central and East Asia. Moscow would have to dismantle its Asian empire to return to Europe’s fold as a small country. That is far from realistic.
Yet, since Russia moved so aggressively in Ukraine, it would be a mistake to see the current confrontation as a small matter being played out at the edge of Europe. Its outcomes will affect Central and East Asian attitudes towards wider US foreign policy.
Obama’s pivot to Asia needs the support of many countries in the region to achieve its goals of enhancing American power and protecting allies. That region has two other major players – Russia and China. One rung below on the ladder is India.
The three countries are armed with nuclear weapons and delivery capabilities spanning thousands of kilometers. They house nearly three billion people; have huge natural resources and growing economies. They are weak currently compared to the US and EU but their power on all economic and military measures will likely become irresistible in less than 30 years.
Obama began his Asia pivot to ensure that none of those countries becomes an obstacle for American foreign policy and all observe international law while boosting global trade and prosperity.
The problem is that Asians may see Obama as having been weakened whether or not Putin blinks first. If Obama blinks, they will defer less to US foreign policy imperatives.
If Putin blinks but escapes punishment, they may see his willingness to stand up to Obama as an example worth following to squeeze concessions from the US while escaping penalties. So, wisdom lies in stopping the situation from degrading too far.