Despite his dreadful human rights and anti-democracy record, Vladimir Putin’s first decrees as President could help to reverse centuries of socio-economic backwardness compared with the West and trigger better lives for Russians-in-the-street. They could also give cause for trepidation by triggering changes in the geopolitical balance among the US, Europe, China and Russia.
In the ornate room from which the Czars ruled, Putin today declared his own sense of historical mission as, “I think it is the meaning of my whole life”. His first decrees were that all state-owned companies other than natural resources and defence will be privatised by 2016. And his government will raise Russia’s rank to 20 from 120 in the World Bank index on the ease of doing business.
The decrees were little noticed by the world media but their significance cannot be over emphasised. They open-handedly endorse the push for modernisation and entrepreneurial freedoms of Dmitry Medvedev, the former President who is now Putin’s Prime Minister. Further, they set deadlines for performance despite an all-encompassing scope. They throw down a gauntlet for the Putin-Medvedev tandem since corruption is the main hurdle to ease of doing business. They might also turn into a nepotistic sale of assets, opening a new reign of carpet baggers and oligarchs.
Of course, Russia’s economy will never be as large as China or the US because of an ageing population of just 144 million. Right now, it is a far from easy place because of a murky legal system and thoroughly corrupt business practices. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index ranks it at 143 out of 183 countries.
The swap of jobs was much criticised in the US and the West as a power grab but the real reasons could turn out to be that only Putin at the helm can transform Russia into a global economic player while modernizing its colossal military.
As President, Medvedev could never have accumulated the raw power required to force politicians and business titans in the Russian republics to obey orders for modernisation directly affecting their wealth and influence. Many are closely linked to the corrupt Russian military, local power brokers and trigger-happy Mafia.
Now Putin will do the arm twisting, black mailing and politicking while Medvedev, the technocrat, will use his Prime Minister’s seat to obtain implementation. Having exercised real power as President, he will also be a uniquely influential and skilful Prime Minister.
Many young people in large cities, especially Moscow, did not live in the Soviet era and are demanding Western style freedoms. For a while, they even raised hopes for a “Russian spring” but they are leaderless and incoherent. Medvedev will co-opt them by bringing in the kinds of economic reforms and jobs they desire while continuing to postpone liberal democracy, like in China.
Coming from Putin, the decrees are not idle first words to be forgotten later. He has not risen to power through the political struggle and exaggerated populism usual in democratic countries. He is a tough man who does not abide dissent. He is also a nationalist who wants to upgrade Russian economic power and ensure his place in history by bringing better lives to the people. But he has fundamental flaws undermining his goals. He does not believe in liberal democracies like in the West and he expects courts to serve his version of the national interest.
Despite wide-spread antipathy for him in the US, Putin does have an impressive record of nation building, including a 400 percent increase in average incomes, a reversal of the social decline that marked the 1990s, and a slowdown in the collapse of birth rates depopulating the country. During the past 12 years under Putin and Medvedev as Presidents, Russia has been a predictable and rational global player. Its economy has had vicissitudes but it has not destabilised others, unlike the nefarious global impacts of the financial implosions in the US and European Union
If it happens, Russian economic success should be welcomed as a global asset because it will boost trade and generate prosperity. But the verdict on the Putin-Medvedev team will depend on their domestic political skills in stamping out corruption and the injustices inflicted routinely on ordinary people. It is not yet clear whether either sees justice and human rights as key components of human development and economic well-being. This short sightedness may become the tandem’s Achilles heel. (Ends)