For what it’s worth, Marc Ambinder has Karl Rove’s map going into the election.
It’s Obama 338, McCain 220.
Over the weekend, I predicted 375 to 163 for Obama. The difference is that Rove gives Indiana (11), Missouri (11), and North Carolina (15) to McCain, whereas I give them to Obama.
This morning, I think that my prediction may be overly optimistic. I can certainly see all three of those states going to McCain. I may change my mind as the day goes on, but I’m going to stick with 375 for now.
There is the risk of enough of an “Appalachian” vote — by which I mean the white working-class vote in states where Hillary did well in the primaries — against Obama to give those states to McCain, along with, however less likely, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, but I think high turnout for Obama among blacks, young people, and new voters, along with Obama’s huge advantage among early voters and what by all accounts is an incredible ground campaign and get-out-the-vote effort for Obama, will not only offset but surpass any advantage McCain may have among those “Appalachian” voters.
And, by all accounts, turnout is already spectacular.
Please offer your predictions in comments.