The numbers continue to go down:
Americans are overwhelmingly resigned to something less than clear-cut victory in Iraq and growing numbers doubt the country will achieve a stable, democratic government no matter how the U.S. gets out, according to an AP poll.
At the same time, dissatisfaction with President Bush’s handling of Iraq has climbed to an alltime high of 71 percent. The latest AP-Ipsos poll, taken as a bipartisan commission was releasing its recommendations for a new course in Iraq, found that just 27 percent of Americans approved of Bush’s handling of Iraq, down from his previous low of 31 percent in November.
“Support is continuing to erode and there’s no particular reason to think it can be turned back,” said John Mueller, an Ohio State University political scientist and author of “War, Presidents and Public Opinion.” Mueller said that once people “drop off the bandwagon, it’s unlikely they’ll say ‘I’m for it again.’ Once they’re off, they’re off.”Even so, Americans are not necessarily intent on getting all U.S. troops out right away, the poll indicated. The survey found strong support for a two-year timetable if that’s what it took to get U.S. troops out. Seventy-one percent said they would favor a two-year timeline from now until sometime in 2008, but when people are asked instead about a six-month timeline for withdrawal that number drops to 60 percent.
Meanwhile, the parallel is now being made matter of factly: the country seems headed to where public opinion was about the government and the war during the height of the Vietnam War:
The AP-Ipsos survey of 1,000 Americans, taken Monday through Wednesday, underscores growing pessimism about Iraq. Some 63 percent did not expect a stable, democratic government to be established there, up from 54 percent who felt likewise in June. Skepticism was considerably higher among Democrats, with just 22 percent expecting a stable, democratic government, compared with half of all Republicans. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The latest numbers evoke parallels to public opinion about the war in Vietnam four decades ago. Just 9 percent expect the Iraq war to end in clear-cut victory, compared with 87 percent who expect some sort of compromise settlement. A similar question asked by Gallup in December 1965, when the American side of the war still had eight years to run, found just 7 percent believed the war in Vietnam would end in victory.
Several “messages” are embedded in these poll results. It’s clear that if Bush is perceived as dismissing key findings of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group and these are findings the public wants, his numbers, numbers for the GOP, and war support numbers will continue to go South. The words “bipartisan” carry more weight than “John McCain says” or “Harry Reid says” to many Americans.
Policy makers and key members of the Bush administration could make the argument that poll numbers don’t necessarily endorse policies in nation’s best long-term interest…but that opens a separate, multifaceted debate. The bottom line is that these poll numbers show the nation in line with the Iraq Study Group’s proposals. It also shows the public is NOT in line with that segment of the Democratic party that urges a much faster pullout than the Baker Commission suggests.
The poll results further indicate that although the administration insists there can’t be a timer to specify a light at the end of the tunnel, the public is beginning to set one now.
And unless Defense Secretary Robert Gates makes some visible policy shifts, the next two years could mean its the White House (along with its talking points talk show hosts) against the Democrats, the bulk of public opinion and parts of the Republican party itself. None of which would be good news for the war effort, the U.S. national interest or the prospects of the GOP for 2008 — or perhaps beyond.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.