Tomorrow is The Big Day! Or at least the latest in a series of roughly one half dozen Big Days we have been promised in this primary campaign season. During this long, torturous pause since the last caucus we have been promised that this was going to be vital. Words such as decisive, critical, and crucial have been bandied about. One pundit on the Sunday morning chat festivals even referred to it as the “showdown in Pennsylvania.” It sounded as if Clinton and Obama had ridden their old paints into town, emerging from saloons at opposite ends of a dusty street in Latrobe, fingers twitching near their holstered six-shooters. Of course there is one glaring problem with this analogy. In a real old-west showdown one of the contestants generally rides off happily into the sunset while the other is dragged off unceremoniously to Boot Hill.
Here, on a sunny, pleasant Northeast morning, I took a look at the latest polling numbers from both Zogby and Gallup and found myself wondering if the imminent primary Big Event might not be yet more sound and fury signifying nothing. Obama’s “surge” in PA seems to have been shut down, but Hillary has not managed to move the numbers back in her favor past single digits. Nationally, Obama remains ahead of Clinton, but well within the margin of error. And if this contest tomorrow plays out like so many in the past, the Democrats’ “fair and balanced” approach to primary elections (unlike the mean old Republicans’ winner take all formula) will leave the two opponents sitting pretty much where they are right now.
If Clinton scratches out a single digit victory, she will maintain the same media story of how she is “winning the big states the Democrats need” and Obama will keep his narrow lead in States won, popular vote and delegate count. And Howard Dean (along with the Super Delegates) will continue to fret, moan and sit on their hands. The waiting game will then continue, much as it has this past month, until The Next Big Thing in Indiana and North Carolina.
And so, gentle readers, the dance goes on. I hope you’re wearing comfortable shoes because I somehow doubt the band is anywhere near done playing.