The buzz is on: wouldn’t Paul Ryan be a great choice for the 2012 Republican nomination? The issue raised by news analysts, some conservative pundits and news stories now contain some statements by Ryan suggesting it could be an option that is on his mind. Other stories suggest Ryan is not seriously considering it.
A good idea? Are Americans all over the country just waiting for Paul Ryan to head the Republican ticket? Jonathan Bernstein, writing in the Washington Post, says forget it.
There’s not a lot of polling on Ryan that I can find, but a recent Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin (you know, the state he’s from) had him at 41/46 favorable/unfavorable, so in his home state he’s fairly well known but not very well-liked. Members of the House are almost all unknown to the American people, and while pundits and political professionals have been fairly obsessed with Ryan for the last few months, most Americans don’t pay close attention to politics, and probably know little about him.
Of course, the other obvious problem with a Ryan nomination is that he’s best known for a massively unpopular Medicare plan, and nominating him would be a fairly insane choice, as it would constitute a massive double down on the plan by the GOP. I’m sure there are plenty of Republicans who find that idea enticing, but presumably there are quite a few who aren’t completely meshugenah. Political scientists usually argue that issues and candidate are usually not all that important as fundamentals such as economic performance. But Ryancare is a different matter altogether: Nominating Ryan would make the election an argument over the GOP’s least popular policy proposal, instead of a referendum on the economy, which would be the GOP’s best chance of winning.
It doesn’t hurt Ryan to have these sorts of rumors floating around, but there’s every chance that he’d peak the day he announced. He has a great position right now; I think he’d be very foolish to jeopardize it with a (very) longshot presidential run.
Some conservatives are also in effect saying “wait a minute” to speculation and suggestions about Ryan and the Oval Office. For instance, in a detailed post that needs to be read in full, Hot Air’s Dafyddd AB Hugh looks at Ryan’s pronouncements on various issues in particular in Ryan’s take on foreign policy in a recent speech. He liked Ryan but does not like what he sees in terms of Ryan as the GOP’s nominee:
….I am a big fan of the Roadmap for America’s Future, crafted by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI, 96%), Chairman of the House Budget Committee; I believe it to be the best and most feasible plan for true economic recovery in the United States… in fact, the only feasible plan; and at that only feasible in the 113th (next) Congress. But unlike Beldar, I am still rather skeptical of electing (or for heaven’s sake, “drafting”) Ryan to become President of the United States. I just don’t know enough about the man, the Commander, or the leader.
I am a big fan of the Roadmap for America’s Future, crafted by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI, 96%), Chairman of the House Budget Committee; I believe it to be the best and most feasible plan for true economic recovery in the United States… in fact, the only feasible plan; and at that only feasible in the 113th (next) Congress. But unlike Beldar, I am still rather skeptical of electing (or for heaven’s sake, “drafting”) Ryan to become President of the United States. I just don’t know enough about the man, the Commander, or the leader.
He does a long analysis and concludes:
None of this gives me confidence that Ryan would be a leader on any issue other than the economy. None of this encourages me to call for him to be drafted into the presidential snoozeapalooza.
Ryan would face the same problem Sarah Palin faces: there are no signs that he is someone who can go beyond his existing political constituency. For the GOP to win — even if the economy is still in terrible shape — it will need a candidate who can appeal not only to conservatives, talk show hosts and members of the country’s talk show political culture.
Reading news stories and posts suggesting that Ryan would be a great choice to run against Barack Obama reminds me of 1964 when Barry Goldwater who did not like LBJ picked Rep. William E. Miller to run with him as his Vice President.
When asked why he picked Miller (whose daughter is liberal talker Stephanie Miller), Goldwater once said because he knew Miller got to LBJ — so it was in effect a way to stick it to LBJ.
Some of this seems to be in play here.
If Obama is attacking Ryan’s proposal on Medicare, and his budget, and using him as a whipping boy in speeches, and if Ryan accused Obama in a meeting of not leading but demagoguing on the Medicare issue, then it’d be great to make him the nominee to stick it to Obama.
But parties running candidates mostly to stick it to another party or politician is not usually how it’s done nor is it effective.
Politicians sticking it to the voters who elected them, that’s how it’s done.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.