After the conventions and the candidates’ VP picks, Obama still maintains a slight electoral lead, according to NBC’s map. Obama has 228 electoral votes to McCain’s 200, with 110 electoral votes in the toss-up column. The changes from last month, when Obama held a 217-189 advantage: Missouri moves from toss-up to Lean McCain, Pennsylvania moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, and Wisconsin moves from Lean Obama to toss-up. We came VERY close to moving North Carolina to toss-up, but until we see one decent poll showing Obama ahead, we’re not there yet. Every North Carolina poll has had McCain ahead, though it is worth noting the RNC and the campaign are finally up in the Tar Heel state with paid media.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
Now the question becomes: will 2008 become a replay of 2004? Or 2000?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.