As Egypt teeters on the brink, potentially affecting the fate of 400 million Arabs and over a billion Muslims, Europe is gradually sliding to a brink of its own. And Barack Obama may yet become the President that started America’s international decline because of a trust deficit over values that America professes to uphold since its founding.
Together, the Muslim world and Europe contain nearly two billion people. With them, the trust deficit is emerging. The issue is not about President Obama’s style. Doubt is growing about the prudence of believing in any US administration to eagerly defend open-market capitalism, freedom of expression, democracy, human rights and rule of law even when that is not convenient for US foreign policy.
Ironically, whether or not Hosni Mubarak loses leadership of the Egyptian people, Obama may lose leadership over his country’s main allies and friends. The world is not what it used to be just 10 years ago, when the only relationships that mattered were those among governments.
The information technology, satellite TV and social networking revolutions have given an unprecedented voice to people that is increasing exponentially. Optical fiber and high-speed Internet access cannot be held back. Despite denial of service, censorship and filters on content, they are reaching across the world to empower ordinary people at breakneck pace.
Now the fact is that people have opinions and the tools to share them. They have the ability unavailable for millennia to organize, protest and resist. This is happening in Egypt. But Obama is still thinking in terms of domestic politics and foreign realpolitik. He is not giving an honored place to the people’s aspirations.
It is technically correct to say that Obama’s responsibility is only to the American people. But this is self-serving. US military forces are present in all world regions. Almost all financial or commodity transactions must be routed through America or US enterprises. Almost all trade transactions use the US dollar, controlled by the US Federal Reserve Bank and the Treasury. Almost all the world’s large corporations can be hauled into US courts by petitioners, whether or not Americans.
Governments in Egypt and Europe have been staunch American allies for decades. They have also participated in US wars of choice. But they are no longer absolute masters in their own houses. They cannot take pro-US foreign policy decisions as easily as in the past because their people will have none of it.
In Egypt, the people’s rage is abundantly clear and Obama has still not come to their side of the fence. He still wants to ensure that a post-Mubarak Egypt will be pro-American and will keep the peace with Israel. He has accepted Israel’s argument that Mubarak should stay in place to ensure a peaceful transition to whatever scrappy democracy emerges.
But he is losing the Egyptian people’s trust. Of course, any post-Mubarak government will probably do the White House’s bidding because of overwhelming American military, financial and economic preponderance. But the heart will no longer be there. So it will collaborate through gritted teeth while covertly stabbing the US and Israel as often as possible.
Europe, the other great US ally, is facing an existential crisis of which the White House has not taken full measure. European leaders no longer seem to know how to prevent an economic implosion from within. Their Union is turning into a self-doubting giant scared of the dynamism of China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa.
The main reason is a currency storm that could turn into a tsunami causing business and bank failures and more unemployment. Even Germany could break if Spain and Italy need to be shored up like Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The people are starting to have doubts because Obama is not giving their likely personal hardship much attention even as he occasionally attends to their government’s needs.
Undoubtedly, US military and economic preponderance will continue to grow and cannot be matched soon, even by China. So, foreign governments will prefer a friend in the White House but only power cannot bring American back. It must also have the good-faith trust of people at home and abroad. George Bush almost destroyed the trust. Obama was expected to restore it but he seems to be shaping into a politician rather than an international leader.