By now everybody is familiar with McCain’s latest barrage of ads accusing Obama of being a vapid celebrity akin to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Many people have commented, rightly in my opinion, that this move demeans John McCain and undermines his “maverick” brand. He might get a short-term boost from a lazy media willing to play his provocative ads for free. But he’s killing himself with Independents.
But I think there is actually a far deeper problem for McCain. The essence of the celebrity gambit is that Obama is a pop star with no substance. In fact, the question at the end of the ad is: Is he ready to lead? The image the viewer comes away with in the ad is that Barack Obama is a mindless ditz who has no grasp of complex issues and has no idea how to run anything.
The catch, however, is that Barack Obama is an extremely intelligent man. And in October, American voters are going to see that in three debates. There is no way you can watch him in a sit-down interview, or a one-on-one debate and conclude that he is a ditz over his head. You might disagree with his positions. And he might squirm if cornered on a few ambush questions. But you’ll never get the feeling that he’s unable to think through complex political issues on his feet. So, McCain is actually lowering the bar for Obama in the debates.
In fact, this whole gambit is reminiscent of Jimmy Carter’s 1980 campaign against Ronald Reagan. Carter regularly mocked Reagan as a B-list Hollywood actor with no brains. For much of the summer the charge worked. The polls were tied, even in the height of the Iran hostage crisis and economic problems. But then came the debate. And Reagan showed himself in command of the issues, poised under fire, and reasonable. Reagan pulled away the last week and won by 10 points.
I think this election is shaping up much like 1980, and McCain’s celebrity gambit is similar to Carter’s Hollywood taunt. By lowering the bar, Carter – and McCain – make their opponents’ jobs so much easier in the debate. Considering the overwhelming desire for change among the electorate – true now as in 1980 – the only question at this point is voter comfort with the challenger. John McCain, like Jimmy Carter, is only setting up his own trap.