House Majority Leader Tom DeLay faces a double-whammy: running for re-election in what could be one of his toughest races yet and defending himself legally against ethics charges — and there is indeed a prospect DeLay’s dilemmas could help the Democrats. But the Democrats better not take anything for granted.
That’s part of the conclusion reached by Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics in the latest edition of his critically acclaimed Crystal Ball free eletter, this one written with senior intern David Wasserman.
You can read (and subscribe to for free) the full Crystal Ball report here. It also goes into various House races up for grabs. We’ll be focusing on his message about DeLay. Sabato writes:
If last week’s hastily planned GOP gala-style pep rally was any indication, there now exists genuine concern in conservative circles about the political vulnerability of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Although the “Hammer” has earned his stripes by aggressively and impressively keeping his party in line over the years, it is clear the Texan faces tough battles on two fronts in the run-up to 2006: he must both defend his overseas travels before the House Ethics Committee and defend his increasingly marginal Houston-area seat against a seasoned challenger.
He also notes:
Our use of the word “marginal” must be qualified. Only in this day and age of nearly uniform, landslide House reelections could DeLay’s Houston CD be called marginal–but DeLay’s unimpressive 55 percent in 2004 and a strong 2006 challenger in former Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson certainly allows Democrats to dream a Texas-sized dream.
The issue, Sabato writes, is whether Democrats can really nationalize the DeLay issue and use it to make gains in 2006. He notes that GOPers say this strategy bombed in 2004… but adds:
In our view, the midterm elections represent a whole new ballgame. Not only is the DeLay matter more serious and prominent in the public mind than it has ever been, but the lack of a top-of-the-ticket presidential election in 2006 grants the actions of Congress a much higher level of media attention right off the bat.
To be sure, at this early stage, congressional Democrats face a substantial dilemma. Turning up the heat on the Majority Leader so far in advance of November 2006 could yield a politically unfruitful early resolution of the issue, either in the form of exoneration by the Ethics Committee or in the form of a leadership resignation or retirement announcement on the part of “Teflon Tom” himself. Without DeLay to kick around, the thinking goes, the House Democrats’ campaign issue matrix next year would probably look an awful lot like those of recent unsuccessful years past.
Overall, whether the Democrats can “hammer” away at the hefty GOP House advantage in 2006 depends on the persistence of both news coverage of Tom DeLay’s ethics troubles and Bush’s unpopularity with regards to the Social Security issue. As we’ve stated in the past, however, a paucity of competitive districts as a result of partisan redistricting means that it would take a national wave of near-1994 proportions to sweep Republicans out of their 29-seat majority.
So are the Republicans sitting pretty? Hardly:
Keeping this in mind and setting aside the “x factor” of the DeLay issue (and other x factors, such as a possible oil-induced recession or a public revolt about continuing troop deaths in Iraq), here’s what the Crystal Ball is paying attention to at this early stage…
He gives you the details, particularly focusing on what he calls the “Three R’s of Congressional Elections (from the standpoint of the off-year):
(1)Retirements and other generators of open seats.
(2)Recruitment: “A party’s chances in midterm elections are perhaps best defined by the quality of candidates they recruit to run in competitive seats. The 2006 candidate recruiting war between the national party committees is well underway, and a verdict should be clear by the end of the year.”
(3)Redistricting: “Recent enthusiasm for mid-Census reconfiguration of congressional districts must please professional political cartographers, who suddenly find themselves employed for entire decades! The impact of a new districting scheme in Texas was felt acutely last year, and a likely new map in GOP-controlled Georgia threatens to give two white Democratic incumbents tough races in 2006. To a lesser degree, it’s possible the re-redistricting craze could change lines in California, where Democrats currently enjoy a 13-seat lead in the state congressional delegation.”
Read the full report for the breakdowns on various House races.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.