Over the past two months, some analysts have suggested that the Democrats could be inching towards the loss of the Senate in 2012. The news that Jim Webb — once considered a rising star in the Democratic Party — will not seek re-election in 2012 ensures that this speculation will continue..and will likely grow.
Chris Cillizza:
Virginia Sen. Jim Webb’s decision not to seek re-election creates an open seat in traditionally Republican territory that could further tilt the map in the GOP’s favor as they aim to win back the Senate in 2012.
Webb’s announcement, which came this morning in the form of a statement from his office, was not terribly surprising to Democratic observers who had long believed that the Senator was a toss up — at best — to run for a second term.
“This seat is going to flip,” predicted one veteran Democratic operative familiar with the Commonwealth’s politics. “The bench is so shallow.”
Webb is the third Democratic (or Democratic-affiliated) Senator to call it quits already this year, joining Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Kent Conrad (N.D.) on the sidelines. Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is the lone Republican to announce she will not seek re-election in 2012.
While holding the Connecticut seat should pose limited problems — if any — for Democrats, both Virginia and North Dakota have deep Republican roots and will be major targets for Republicans in 2012.
The open seats in Virginia and North Dakota — when coupled with the fact that there are 23 Democratic seats up this cycle as compared to just 10 for Republicans — paint a stark portrait of the challenge before Democrats to hold their majority next November.
For Democrats hoping to hold that majority, Virginia is likely to emerge as a linchpin.
The big question mark is the impact of the top of the ticket. If Obama is hugely popular, the Dems could keep the Senate, but the number of iffy seats for them is increasing. As will the speculation.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.