Dick Polman sees a shift in the GOP:
The fundamental tensions within the fragile Republican coalition, which were severely exacerbated by the 2006 campaign, are likely to persist now that Mel Martinez has been tapped to work as general chairman of the national party.
Polman notes that Martinez’s appointment is part of a move to try and win back Hispanic voters turned off by the party’s wing that has been pressng for a hard-line on immigration reform. He writes:
By naming Martinez (who needs to be formally confirmed by Republican National Committee members six weeks hence), the White House is clearly being mindful of the demoralizing California lesson.
There was a time, during the Reagan era and the early ‘90s, when the GOP was making great strides with Hispanic voters in California, to the point where Republican leaders believed they could paint the nation’s biggest state red for the long haul. But then came a pivotal moment. In 1994, GOP governor Pete Wilson decided that if he bashed illegal immigrants, he could best ensure his re-election; hence his support for a state referendum that would have restricted illegals’ access to schools and health care. The result? Legal Hispanic voters, perceiving the GOP as intolerant, retaliated by voting Democratic in 1996 and 1998 – and virtually wiping out the Republicans in state government. The pattern has held, and California Hispanics have overwhelmingly voted Democratic in federal elections ever since.
Indeed, part of the untold story of Pete Wilson is that Wilson lost a trusted advisor some years earlier. There are many who feel he wouldn’t have moved to the right if that person hadn’t passed away. In any event two things happened: (1) Wilson’s presidential prospects were never the same again (he was an up and coming GOP star) and (2) the GOP was decimated in California. MORE:
A plumber named John Raya, who was still ticked off about Pete Wilson (and at presidential candidate Bob Dole, who had tried to replicate the hard line strategy in 1996) told me why he was fed up with the Republicans: “All I want is to get my share of the pie. Talk to me about economic opportunity. Talk to me about lower taxes and safe streets. Don’t talk to me about immigrant-bashing. I tell the Republicans I know, ‘You guys have been giving the Democrats the best recruiting tool since the Kennedys were alive.’”
Raya added: “You know how this feels (listening to the GOP)? It’s like when you have a friend, and you see him keep doing bad stuff, so finally you start to think, ‘I’m not so sure about this guy anymore.’ And then you can’t stick up for him anymore. I’m at that point. I used to try to talk up the Republicans to other Latinos, but I can’t handle it now. I’m a proud guy. I don’t want to be cannon fodder anymore.”
By designating Mel Martinez as the party’s public face, the White House is trying to put a stop to that kind of talk. But if prominent conservatives, sensing Bush’s lame duck status, figure that they have nothing to lose by resisting, then Hispanic voters may well pay more heed to the GOP’s mixed message – and voice their objections in 2008.
As Polman notes, the GOP bigwigs are taking a calculated risk that they’ll make up with Hispanic voters what they lose in hard-line conservatives. All of which suggests that there could be some turmoil within the GOP for months to come.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.