It sounds as if Social Security reform may be destined to face this fate: it’ll be delayed to death.
According to the Washington Post:
President Bush’s bid to add individual accounts to Social Security faces such formidable opposition in the Senate that its supporters may be unable to bring it to a vote, according to a Washington Post survey of senators.
An overwhelming majority of Democratic senators said they will oppose, under any circumstances, Bush’s plan to allow younger workers to divert a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into individual investment accounts that would follow them into retirement. A few others said they will not support such accounts if they require substantial government borrowing. Even many Republicans say that is inevitable because the alternative involves unacceptably large cuts in benefits or tax increases to replace the diverted taxes or both.
Combined, these Democrats form a coalition large enough — more than 41 members — to use delaying tactics to keep the proposal from reaching a vote in the 100-member chamber. The Post survey of the Senate’s 44 Democrats and one Democratic-leaning independent indicates there are at least 42 — and perhaps 44 — who firmly oppose personal investment accounts, particularly if they are financed with borrowed money.
And it wouild be expensive indeed:
Vice President Cheney has said the Bush accounts would cost “trillions of dollars.” Democrats put the price tag at $5 trillion over 20 years.
So far, the political numbers aren’t there:
In the clearest sign yet that Bush’s efforts to win bipartisan support are flagging, several Democrats whom the White House has been courting said they will not support the accounts at all. They include Sens. Thomas R. Carper (Del.) and Mary Landrieu (La.). Three other Bush targets — Sens. Kent Conrad (N.D.), Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) and Mark Pryor (Ark.) — said they will not support individual accounts financed by heavy borrowing.
Bush, who has needed the support of some moderate and conservative Democrats to push through his major initiatives, yesterday appealed to all Democrats to cut a compromise. “If you see a problem, members of Congress, regardless of your party, you have an obligation to come to the table,” he said in a speech in Louisville. “Let’s work together to solve it. All ideas are on the table.” Once the public realizes the seriousness of Social Security’s long-term problems, Bush said, “I pity the politicians who stand in the way of a solution.”
That’s true, to a certain extent, but the problem Bush faces is that his record on a variety of issues suggests that he doesn’t usually genuinely leave all ideas on the table. Democrats are also gunshy because when some of them cooperated with Bush it didn’t mean they were shown any mercy whatsoever at election time.
It’s hard to see how this can be passed without some bipartisan support so all ideas will have to be on the table, or the table will be moved out of the room.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.