All of the major networks (for example CNN) have a policy which forbids releasing their projections as to who will win any given state in an election until the polls are closed. The exit polling is supposed to be kept sacrosanct until everyone has had a chance to get out there and vote. Why? The explanation is both simple and valid. If the media announces that a race is effectively over, they depress the turnout and can amplify a win or loss beyond the levels which might otherwise had been registered. If you are planning on voting for candidate A, but the radio announcer declares that candidate B has already been declared the winner while you are driving home from work, why bother going to the polls for a lost cause? In a closer race, this could suppress an eleventh hour surge for the underdog and even change the outcome of the election.
Now for the unlikely but obvious question posed in the title. What is the difference between these projections and the public release of polling numbers and projections? The current presidential race would not seem to apply, as the polls are close and seem to shift by the day. But what if one of the candidates opens up a significant (let’s say 15% or better) lead nationally and jumps to a similar lead in the majority of the swing states by late October? If all of the Joe and Jane Sixpacks across the country are sitting down in front of the television on Halloween evening and the news anchors are saying that either McCain or Obama has effectively won the election already, where is the motivation to get out and vote?
What benefit to voters get from having these poll numbers fed to them every day? I can understand how the campaigns would pay to get poll numbers… it’s a useful tool that can help them craft their message and decide where to expend resources for the best chance of victory. And, obviously, polls are great for journalists, bloggers, radio hosts and television talking heads since they give us something else to chatter about while we wait for the next debate or monstrous gaffe. But are the voters served by having this information? Or might it actually toss an otherwise potentially close election out the window?
Is it time for the media, both new and old, to declare a moratorium on releasing poll numbers?