OK, now it’s time for some election predictions. As usual, the last days of the campaign bring all sorts of weirdness (Haggard resignation, Saddam sentencing, Kerry comments, Bush pledging to keep Rummy, etc.) that have little net effect on actual votes. People usually make up their minds by a week or so before the election. That said, it’s time to make some predictions about the election. Predict the House margin and Senate margin. And if you like, mention some seats that go each way.
Here’s mine.
Senate:
50R-48D-2I (50-50 in caucus).
Dems hold all seats – Cardin’s is closest in MD. Tester wins MT by 1,000 votes. Webb wins VA by 51-49. But Talent beats McCaskill by 52-48 with superior turnout among evangelicals in Southwest Missouri. Dems pickup PA and OH easily. And RI goes down to the wire, but Whitehouse wins by 52-48.
House:
238D-197R; Dems pick up 36 seats.
Here’s where I see the pickups.
Four seats in PA (PA-06, 07, 08, 10), lose very close in PA-04.
Four seats in OH (OH-01, 02 (the shocker), 15 and 18). Come very close in OH-12).
Three seats in IN (IN-02, 08, and 09). In IN-09, Hill wins by 1,500 votes.
Four seats in NY (NY-24, 20 (Sweeney is falling after losing the endorsement of a newspaper in Glens Falls), 29 (the shocker), and 25 (another semi-shocker). But Reynolds holds NY-26. The Foley scandal has been replaced by the blizzard response in western NY where Reynolds did well.
Three seats in CT. Yes, all three fall to the Dems (despite Lieberman winning easily).
GA: Republicans pick up GA-12. Only GOP pickup.
Two seats in NC (NC-11 easily, and NC-08 (the shocker).
Three seats in FL (FL-16 (Foley’s replacement will make it close, but not enough), FL-22 (Shaw can’t hold this tide back), and FL-13 (Harris’s district – though I’m not entirely sure about this one. Jennings has run a great campaign, but Bush just came in. Then again, Bush motivates the opposition too.
One seat in Texas (TX-22; Write-in campaign will falter. Lampson is well-known.)
Two seats in Kentucky (KY-04 Lucas gets his seat back; and KY-03, Northup finally falls. Like FL-22, this Dem-lean district will finally jettison a Republican fighter. The trend is too strong, and Yarmuth has been better than expected.)
One seat in NH; Bass falls to Hodes. In NH-01, Shea-Porter comes very close to Bradley, nearly completing the New England rout.
Wisconsin: one seat (WI-08).
Illinois: none. In IL-08 Roskam holds off Duckworth, but Seals comes very close to shocking Kirk in IL-10.
Iowa: one seat;IA-01. Like in IL-10, Leach almost loses IA-02.
One seat in MN: Bachmann holds off Wetterling (Foley effect wearing off, like in the Reynolds race); but Walz stuns Gutneckt as Dems come out in droves in response to Bush visit. Also, high turnout with the Senator race pushes Walz over the top.
Nebraska: one seat. Yes, I’m predicting that Scott Kleeb wins NE-03. Nobody else is – even those envisioning a Democratic landslide. But Kleeb has run a perfect campaign. He was the first to Sistah Soldjah John Kerry, underscoring his independence.
Kansas: none. Ryun holds, despite Boyda’s lead. Kansans come home for Ryun.
Colorado: two seats; Perlmutter easily in CO-07. Shocker is Paccione in CO-04. Lamborn wins easy in CO-06 as evangelicals convince themselves that the Haggard accuser was just a political operative.
Wyoming: none. Cheney helps Cubin hold the seat.
Idaho: one. Yes, Grant wins ID-01 as Republicans convince others to vote for the Democrat.
New Mexico: one seat. Like in KY-03 and FL-22, Heather Wilson will lose a fight she’s won many times before.
Arizona: two seats. AZ-08 is easy. J.D. Hayworth falls in AZ-05. Renzi holds on in AZ-01 despite an impending indictment. Simon just isn’t catching on.
Nevada: none. Momentum shifting back to the GOP as allegations against gubernatorial candidate look specious.
Washington: none. Reichert holds on. So does McMorris.
California: one. Pombo falls in CA-11. The district is changing, Pombo’s schtick is wearing thin, and he’s very corrupt. McNerney is getting lots of good publicity. Doolittle holds on in CA-04.
In Governorships:
Dems pick up NY, CO, OH, AR, MN, ID, MA. Fail to get MD as Ehrlich bounces back (and Steele makes it close too).
For great links to make your own predictions, see:
Both are great.