Election News (UPDATED at 10:20 pm/1:20 am)
This will be our quasi official election post. I’ll do my best to keep things updated as late as possible
A quick observation in flipping between the 3 news networks (Fox/CNN/MSNBC) is to see how on Fox they are quasi overtly rooting for the GOP, on MSNBC they are doing so for the Democrats and CNN is actually fairly neutral.
For some really cool election nerd coverage check out CNN Election Wall
A little factoid on the Senate. The last time we had the same party control both the White House and the Senate for 8 consecutive years was 1961-1969.
Senate GOP +7 (52 seats)
We will try to continue to update things as the evening goes on but the big story seems to be done for the night.
At least 52 GOP Senators and around 250 House members.
Alaska unlikely to be decided until the wee hours and Louisiana to a runoff next month (which could actually be a rally point for both parties).
GOP has picked up the Illinois governors mansion and may do so in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maryland, they may win endangered races in Maine and Kansas.
What I will want to see in coming days is how the down ballot races went in terms of state legislatures.
Update 24: 10:20 pm/1:20 am
Looks like calls for the GOP incumbents in both Maine and Kansas from several agencies so if that holds up they would have just one certain loss in Pennsylvania and one possible loss in Alaska (currently trailing).
As noted below they’ve picked up 4 Democratic seats for a net gain of either 2 or 3 (depending on Alaska)
I suspect Colorado and Connecticut will stay Democrat but tonight you never know
Not a good night for the Democrats but the GOP often turns victory into defeat so the next 2 years will be interesting.
Update 23: 10:00pm/1:00am
Another GOP pickup in Massachusetts governors race. Martha Coakley loses again.
So that gives Democrats one gain in Pennsylvania
Republican gains in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts for a net gain of 3
Alaska, Kansas and Maine(GOP leads in Kansas and Maine, no returns from Alaska)
Connecticut and Colorado out for GOP with GOP leads in both
So in theory if GOP holds to leads and wins Alaska that would be a net gain of 5 and a worst case scenario of breaking even.
Going in to the election we had 29R to 21D.
We could have as many as 34 Republicans (admittedly unlikely but possible) which would be the most since the late 1960’s
Update 22: 9:40 pm/12:40 am
Some governors updates
GOP picks up Maryland
So far we have one GOP loss (Pennsylvania) and at least 3 gains (Arkansas, Illinois and Maryland).
Update 21: 9:00/12:00 pm/am
Virginia finally called for Democrats though NBC made hedged a little by saying that a recount is likely.
So we have Alaska out and Louisiana to runoff
Looks like Louisiana will end up more or less a tie which is not good news for Democrats
Now the focus to Governors races where the GOP may pull off some surprises
Update 20: 8:45/11:45 pm
The Iowa senate race now called by most networks for GOP so that is +7 or 52 seats. Alaska and Louisiana only races not resolved
In Illinois the GOP takes the Governors mansion, marking the first time since the 1890’s that an incumbent governor has lost a general election.
Massachusetts and Maryland may well go to the GOP.
I had expected GOP to lose Governor’s mansions but they may gain
NBC now predicting 250 GOP House seats which would be the most Republicans since 1929
Update 19: 8:30/11:30 pm
Word is that Crist has conceded in Florida.
The networks are calling North Carolina giving the GOP 51 seats. Fox has also called Iowa
This gives the GOP 51-52 seats
In Maryland the GOP may win the governors race, though never count that race out for the Democrats.
Looks like we won’t have the long election night we expected.
Update 18: 8:25/11:25 pm
I am ready to call the Senate for the Republicans.
While I thought North Carolina was going to stick with the Democrats I am now calling it for the GOP.
So that gives them at least 51 seats
I expect them to win Iowa and Louisiana and perhaps Alaska so I see 53-54 GOP Senators come January.
And surprisingly the GOP could end up with a net gain in Governor races too.
Update 17: 8:15/11:15 pm
It looks like the GOP is probably going to pick up either North Carolina or Iowa (perhaps both) and Alaska was showing a GOP lead
I expect Virginia to stick Democratic.
Louisiana is likely to tip to GOP if they already control Senate
So that would mean 53-54 GOP Senators come January.
Not a happy night for Harry Reid.
And the GOP may pick up both Massachusetts and Connecticut governor.
In New York Congressman Michael Grimm (a convicted felon) has won re-election… in a blue state.
In fact the GOP may gain several house seats in New York
In Illinois the GOP may very well win the Governors mansion
Update 16: 8:00/11:00 pm
Since I live in California I’ll go ahead and report that Jerry Brown wins re-election
And with Pat Roberts winning in Kansas the GOP no longer has any races in danger and they would have 50 seats at minimum
We have 5 Senate seats that we don’t know the winner. Virginia (probably Dem), North Carolina (tossup), Iowa (tossup) and Alaska (tossup) plus the Louisiana runoff.
All 5 are held by the Democrats and the GOP needs just one to take the Senate.
In North Carolina things remain surprisingly good for Tillis (R) but it’s not over yet (though I am tempted to call it Seat #51 at this point)
In Louisiana we are headed to runoff but it is possible the GOP nominee will finish first, which would be very bad for the Democrats.
On the House side NBC is predicting 246 GOP seats plus or minus 6. 246 seats would tie them with the 1946 landslide and if they go past 246 they have the most since 1928.
Update 15: 7:45/10:45 pm
Big projection from the networks that David Perdue will win the US Senate race in Georgia without a runoff
So if the GOP wins Iowa or Alaska and keeps Kansas they take the Senate.
And Iowa is looking very good for GOP. Most of the vote from Polk County (Des Moines) is in and the Democrat only leads by 5 points when the usual Democratic edge is double digits.
So I would at least lean that race to the GOP.
I still expect Virginia to go Democratic in the end (but there will be a recount) and North Carolina is now back to tossup status for me. The Republican leads by 50,000 votes or so and the Democratic strongholds may not hold enough votes.
Kansas still is tight for GOP of course
Alaska is not reporting yet but it is another tossup
Louisiana is in runoff status.
Again, there is a path for the Democrats to keep the Senate but it is pretty much running the table at this point.
Update 14: 7:30/10:30pm
Taking a glance as some Governors races
Wisconsin looks like a win for Scott Walker, though far from sure
Illinois is incredibly close (about 6,000 vote edge for the Republican) but 80% of Cook county is in so that race could be a GOP win
In New England most of the Governors contest are too close to call.
Keep an eye on those contests while we follow the Senate
Update 13: 7:20/10:20pm
Colorado called for the GOP which gives them +5 (1 more needed)
On the other hand while the networks may not be ready but I will call both North Carolina (Hagan) and Virginia (Warner) for the Democrats.
This helps give them hope of keeping the Senate though things still look rough.
Right now the up for grabs seats seem to be Iowa, Kansas and in a little while Alaska.
The GOP needs just one seat assuming they keep Georgia or win Louisiana
The Democrats would need to win 2 out of 3 plus either GA and LA or all 3 plus one of the two (GA/LA)
Democratic odds are fading
Update 12: 7:00/10:00pm
Some key senate races with poll closing
As expected Montana has gone to the GOP. This is the first time the GOP has held this seat in 100 yrs and the first time they ever won it in a popular election.
Pickup #4 for the GOP… 2 more to go though that could change if Kansas goes Independent (or not… it is not certain which way Orman would go)
Iowa close and this will be a key race
I expect NC to be called for the Democrats soon
I still see VA going Democrat but it may take a little while longer.
New CNN exit polls suggest a GOP win in Iowa (as was the case in Colorado)
If those 2 exit polls are correct it would give the GOP needed number of seats assuming they keep Kansas and Georgia.
Update 11: 6:45/9:45pm
Louisiana is predicted to go to a runoff (which we all expected). I expect that Landrieu (D) to win tonight because there are 2 GOP candidates on the ballot but the GOP would have a slight (though not unbeatable) edge int the December runoff
In Georgia it is looking at least possible that Republican Purdue will win outright tonight though lots of votes from Atlanta and the Black Belt left outstanding.
And as I expected in New Hampshire Jean Shaheen has defeated Scott Brown. This gives Democrats more breathing room. The NC and VA races may also give them good news though if Colorado and Kansas go GOP that could offset the joy.
Update 10: 6:35/9:35pm
I won’t call them quite yet but expect NH, NC and VA to stick with the Democrats
On the other hand 2/3rds of the Denver vote in and Senator Udall is trailing by a decent margin. This could be pickup #4 for the GOP (and with Montana pickup #5, one short assuming Kansas stays GOP)
Update 9: 6:15/9:15pm
Republicans will hold the US House according to CNN (not exactly a shocker)
Update 8: 6:00/9:00pm
In South Dakota the GOP gets pickup #3 with a sigh of relief from the Republicans. Mike Rounds had been expected to win with ease but then the race tightened, though not enough.
Michigan open seat sticks with the Democrats (as expected)
Most other incumbent win.
Kansas and Louisiana too close to call.
But exit polls on CNN suggest GOP wins in Colorado and Kansas (though don’t ever count on exit polls)
On the Governors front we see incumbents win for the most part. Wendy Davis loses in Texas. A number of races too close to call
I still expect Virginia to remain Democratic but you never know
Update 7: 5:52/8:52pm
Looks like we could have some big news after 6pm… CNN hinting at a couple of upsets.
Virginia is still going GOP and most of the Dem strongholds are coming in so that could be one.
CNN also hinted at Kansas being an issue though not much vote in there yet.
Update 6: 5:30/8:30pm
In Arkansas we have another GOP pickup with the defeat of incumbent Mark Pryor (D). New Senator Tom Cotton is the first US Senator born after the US Bicentennial.
Big night for GOP in that state as they may well take most of the statewide offices and the state legislature for the first time ever.
Other races remain close, probably will be saying that a lot tonight
Florida Governor all but certain to go to recount unless there is a big Crist surge.
I’m guessing North Carolina and New Hampshire stay Democratic, probably also Virginia but that race is much better for GOP than I expected.
Update 5: 5:00/8:00pm
A number of predestined contests called. Thad Cochran wins in Mississippi/etc
Virginia remains interesting to me as the vote so far in Northern Virginia (aka NOVA) is not nearly as Democratic as I would expect though there is only a small amount in so far.
Exit polls in New Hampshire suggest a Democratic win but still a close contest.
North Carolina seems to be headed Democratic.
On the Governors side, Pennsylvania has gone Democratic with the GOP incumbent losing (as he was widely expected to).
So far most other seats remain with their party.
Race in Florida is a near dead heat. Same in Georgia.
All of New England is too close to call (5 Dems and 1 GOP there)
Update 4: 4:45/7:45pm
Some looks at big Senate races
In Virginia Republican Ed Gillespie is up 55-42 over Democratic incumbent Mark Warner with 11% of the vote in but I would guess NOVA hasn’t come in yet so it will tighten.
In both North Carolina and Georgia the Republicans lead but less than 5% of vote has come in.
Also in Florida the Governors race has gone from a comfy Democratic lead to very tight (and will likely go back and forth all night)
Update 3: 4:30/7:30pm
First pickup of the night in West Virginia where Shelly Moore Capito becomes the first GOP senator since 1958 and the first woman ever.
In Ohio John Kasich wins easy re-election as Governor.
Update 2: 4:17/7:17 pm
In Florida Charlie Crist’s campaign wants voting extended in Broward County only because of long lines. Broward tends to vote Democratic.
Update 1: 7:10/4:10 pm
So far the only big race called is in Kentucky for Mitch McConnell. For all the ink spilled over this “tight” race he was called the winner by all the networks moments after the polls closed.
Virginia remains to close to call at this stage (which is perhaps a bad sign for Democrats but it is early)
Same with Georgia being too close to call as a possible warning for the GOP
Most of the other races on the East coast are pretty much a lock for one side or the other so not a lot of news likely until the next hour