Senate seats turn over every six years, and six years ago a Democratic wave election helped the party capture lots of normally red territory, making this election especially challenging. Governorships, on the other hand, turn over every four years. And four years ago, Republicans carried off a rout. So in the governor’s races, it is Republicans now fighting in neutral or hostile territory. …JonathanChait,DailyIntel
Sam Wang, the Princeton pollster, doesn’t see a “rout.” In the governors’ races, he sees a “lurch.” To the left.
Kansas is a tie, not an inevitable GOP win. Dems are up 6 points in Alaska and 9 (count ’em!) in Pennsylvania. Then a mix of ties and Dem surges in Wisconsin, Maine, Florida, Illinois, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.
Republicans tried to turn Obamacare into a lethal weapon. And failed. GOP obstructionist policies seem to have backfired. Obamacare is a hit in Kentucky.
Red-state Republicans Mitch McConnell and Tom Cotton have dissembled incoherently rather than endorse the anti-Obamacare absolutism favored by the conservative base. Scott declared himself in favor of accepting the law’s Medicaid expansion last year. This summer, doomed Pennsylvania Republican governor Tom Corbett finally gave in. North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, who once boasted — accurately — of having “stopped Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion cold,” announced this week that the state should “consider” accepting it.
In McConnell’s case, the Republican is bedeviled by a popular Democratic governor who has thrown himself fully behind implementing Obamacare, with impressive results. In many of the other states, the general pro-Republican thrust of the election is running up against a localized backlash against Republican policies. If Obama were the only incumbent, Republicans would have locked up the Senate majority by now and might be poised to enjoy a genuine wave. Unfortunately for them, they have had the chance to govern. …Chait,DailyIntel
Kentucky Dem, Alison Lundergan Grimes, seems to have turned a corner. Dana Milbank reminds us that she was doing so poorly that the Dems turned off their money machine. But all that has changed:
… She went outside for her unscheduled news conference, saying her strong showing in this week’s polls — two show her in a statistical dead heat with McConnell — means that “Kentucky won’t be bought” and that “the energy and momentum is on our side.”
Apparently the national party agreed. Half an hour after Grimes’s feisty performance in Bowling Green, the DSCC reversed its earlier decision and said it was pouring $650,000 back into TV ads for Grimes. ...WaPo
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Wang had Colorado edging towards a Republican win. But there’s news this morning that the governor’s race has gone Dem in what appears to be a dramatic turnaround.
A new Quinnipiac poll in Colorado finds Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) now leads Bob Beauprez (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 44%.
Hickenlooper trailed by 10 points in a similar poll last month. ...PoliticalWire