The techniques that economists use to understand their specialized studies, and to decree the nostrums the rest of us must now follow, are so exotic, so elaborate, so far beyond the ken of ordinary mortals, they must be greatly simplified when transmitted to lesser minds. Thus, describing the future before us is today often reduced to single letters — V, U, W or L.
In a V economic future, after things slide way down, they turn on a dime and soar way back up.
In a U future, after things slide way down, they languish there for awhile, then soar way back up.
In a W future (sometimes referred to as a “double dip”), things slide way down, come back a little, then again go down a little, before soaring way back up.
And in an L future, after sliding way down, things just stay down at that level for years to come.
Of course, if any of these futures actually does come to pass, the other future predictions are wrong. Which might lead you to think that a lot of incorrect prognosticators will lose their jobs and be forced to seek training in more useful trades like sanitary engineering. But that will never happen. Because economists, like theologians, can be wrong endlessly without losing their cache.
So, then, you wonder: Will our economic future actually resemble a V, a U, a W or an L? Heck, I don’t know any better than the people who claim they do know. But I nonetheless feel it necessary to add a few more possible letters as guides to what might lie ahead.
How about a K-shaped future? Here, most people’s economic lives just keeping going down and down, but a few groups (Wall Street heavies and hedge fund managers, for example) just dip temporarily before surging upwards again, while Wall Street small fry take their own continuing dip but at a slower pace than the general population. One could argument, in fact, that we are already experiencing such a K “recovery.”
Then there’s the T-shaped future. A lot of people here keep sinking while a much smaller group just cruise along like always. Another possible description of present day America, with the Beltway crowd included at the T’s horizontal top.
And there’s the long-term O economic future paradigm (I like to use the word paradigm in my postings whenever possible because it makes my reasoning sound more plausible). The economy here goes down and then up, then down and then up, endlessly.
A variant of the O economic future is the Q future. Here, things go up and down endlessly, but a few people escapes along the way, presumably to higher economic consciousness. Think Siddhartha.
There are other letter ways to describe what’s coming, economically speaking. There’s the anguished Z and there’s the dreaded R that…well, no need to go there now.
More anon. But for the nonce, gotta get back to the nachos and the Millers, while anguishing about the Eagles punishing defeat at the hands of the Saints.