On Good Friday, the Obama administration announced that it was again delaying a decision on the controversial Keystone Pipeline. The reason cited was ongoing litigation in Nebraska. But because the concept of this project has been ongoing for some time for five years, I had a theory. Could Obama’s indecision be a ploy to help Congressional candidates this fall? Specifically, I am thinking of Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and if it is indeed the case, it may almost work.
The three term Democrat faces among the toughest re-election fights of any Democratic incumbent. She has never taken more than 52% of the vote and represents a state where Obama’s popularity is underwater. But things have changed. For starters, her influence by virtue of her Chairmanship of the Energy Committee its peak. That gavel leaves her in a position to do wonders for her state. And after the President’s announcement, she promised to use that power to do just that.
Now I am not saying helping Landrieu’s re-election or that of other Democrats for whom Keystone might play a role is at the top of the President’s indecision on Keystone. But it might not be near the bottom either. Both Obama and Landrieu know that the President is as popular as floods and hurricanes in the “Bayou State,” which means having Obama simply approve the deal would do little to help vulnerable Democrats separate themselves from him. But were those same folks do an end-run, essentially taking him on and winning. Well, that would show the voters something else.
And Landrieu has not so subtly signaled a willingness to bypass the President legislatively. “If everyone cooperates we just might be able to get an efficiency bill that both parties have worked on, very hard, and it’s very important, will create a lot of jobs in our country, on an important part of our energy mix, and we may also be able to get a vote on Keystone,”
Now even if the project is enacted in the 11th hour before the elections and Landrieu becomes the key Keystone Cop of the Keystone project, not all is guaranteed for her. She must still deal with serious numbers. But Obama is not on the ballot (his doing so might actually have hurt her in ’08) and Landrieu is more popular than most Democrats in some of the Cajun heavy parishes of northern Louisiana.
More importantly, parochialism is more important here than nearly anywhere else and Landrieu has worked hard for her state’s interest. In that regard, she is already borrowing a page from Harry Reid’s playbook. When the Nevadan was facing the race of his life, he ran ads from a number of folks prominent in business interests of Vegas, including casino magnates. Reid was the Majority Leader and casino executives, in noting they don’t always vote Democratic, stressed the importance of Reid’s position. Landrieu’s chairmanship offers the same idea, different state. Recently, a ship supervisor, noting Landrieu’s position, taped an ad backing her. He’s a Republican.
Landrieu’s challenge is going to be turning out her base, particularly if, as expected, the race goes into a December runoff (under Louisiana law, all candidates run on the same ballot and the race goes to a runoff if no candidate receives 50%).