Even though partisans point to methodology flaws, question bias, etc. it’s now clear more than ever that President George Bush seems to steadily losing support — so much that a new ABC News/Washington poll finds him at a career low.
There is some good news for Bush…but it’s lukewarm. If spinning is an art in modern politics, then the White House needs to call the Louvre for a top-of-the-line artist on this one. It has more than the usual dose of bad news for the White House:
George W. Bush’s job approval rating slipped to a career low 45 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, damaged both by discontent with the war in Iraq and broad unhappiness with the price of gasoline at home.
Views on Iraq, while stable, are not good: Fifty-three percent of Americans say the war was not worth fighting, 57 percent disapprove of the way Bush is handling it and 68 percent call the level of U.S. casualties unacceptable. The public only divides, 49-49 percent, on whether the war has improved long-term U.S. security, its basic rationale.
So it’s lukewarm approval and a nail-biting split on whether the war has improved domestic security. The question then becomes: if you assume these numbers will more or less hold by election time (a faulty assumption, actually since some unforseen event could cause Bush to react and send the numbers up or down even more) which factor will help determine future elections? The even split (more close elections?) or the growing thumbs down on the war? MORE:
At home, opinions on gasoline prices are even more dire. Just 22 percent approve of Bush’s work on the problem, while a whopping 73 percent disapprove. Two-thirds say gas prices are causing them financial hardship — back up after a dip last week — and six in 10 think the Bush administration could take measures to cut the price of gas.
That view seems to run contrary to Bush’s comment Monday: “I wish I could snap my fingers and lower the price of gasoline for you. The markets don’t work that way. I’d be snappin’ if I could do it.”
Bush’s problem is that when he ran in 2000 he ran suggesting that he could do more about energy policy, given his background. Plus, Americans almost always have blamed the President if there are problems at the pump. Then add to that the fact that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are identified in the public mind as pro-oil companies. If prices continue to skyrocket it’ll be hard to shift the blame on the Democrats or on Bill Clinton. AND:
In another bottom-line view, a bare majority, 51 percent, says the United States is winning the war in Iraq — hardly an expression of broad confidence, albeit more than the 38 percent who say the United States is losing the war. Eight percent call it a draw.
Here’s the worst bit of news in this poll:
Separately, in a result that could embolden Bush’s critics, a majority of Americans — including more than three-quarters of Democrats and nearly six in 10 independents — say the Democrats in Congress have not gone far enough in opposing the war, or, for that matter, in opposing Bush’s policies more generally.
Remember a few things about polls:
- Polls are see-saws. But these days Bush is getting more “saw” than “see.”
- Metholologies and samplings do differ.
- Partisans seemingly always embrace polls that make their guy look good and say “See? Look at this poll!” and discount, belittle or denegrate polls that make them look bad (“No one called and polled me…The only poll that counts is on election day…Their methodology was bad).
But the inescapeble fact is this: Bush’s polls have been trending downwards — and he is in his second term, where the clock is running out on his clout.
Yet, polls can be influenced by unpredictable factors. For instance, how will Hurricane Katrina impact future polls? Will it influence them at all? And how? And why? And Iraq: the on-again/off-again nature of the attempt to create a constitution. How will that impact public opinion? If a constitution is ratified, will that negate some of the bad publicity surrounding the difficulties to come up with a document so far?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.