Democrats who think it’s going to be enough to simply be the anti-Bush or go on the assumption that President George W. Bush’s poll numbers will remain low might think again:
Amid a relentless and detailed political makeover, George Bush’s political numbers continue to go UP:
WASHINGTON — President Bush’s job approval rating, on a long slide since his re-election last year, rebounded from historic lows in a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken this weekend.
In the survey, 42% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president, 5 percentage points higher than his record-low rating of 37% in mid-November. The modest rise comes amid strong economic reports and the approach of critical elections in Iraq this week. The poll of 1,003 adults has a margin of error of +/—3 percentage points.
“Gas prices have started to come down, which has given a signal about what could happen with home heating oil,” Republican pollster David Winston says in explaining Bush’s improved standing. “There’s a sense that maybe this economy is going better.”
Democratic pollster Doug Schoen sees no signs of a sustained turnaround, however. “While this represents a slight change, it doesn’t change the underlying dynamic, which suggests a president who has lost the confidence of the American people,” he says.
Bush’s standing remains lower than that of any president in his second term since World War II except Richard Nixon.
BUT-T: USA Today notices what we pointed out earlier: Bush seems to be on the rebound. This means he’s (a) doing a better job of getting his point of view across, (b) reassuring doubting members of the coalition that helped elect him and getting them back into the fold, (c) stacking up more successfully when some independent voters are pondering the Democratic alternative.
Even so, Bush’s political situation seems to have stabilized after a perilous autumn. Three other national polls released in the past three weeks put his rating on the rise to 41% or 42%. A Gallup Poll taken Dec. 5-8 measured it at 43%.
In the USA TODAY survey, Bush’s rating by independents jumped by 1 points, compared with a month earlier, to 38% from 28%.
So the independents, who are not in anyone’s camp, are beginning to return to the Bush camp. You have to ask yourself: all the factors above are valid ones, but could it also be coincidental that these poll numbers are on the upswing for the President right after DNC Chair Howard Dean made his highly controversial — and well-publicized — comments about the U.S. not being able to win the Iraq war…comments he later felt compelled to clarify?
And then there is this CRUCIAL Factor. Bush and his team seem to have changed their approach on a dime. Gone are the speeches (defended by partisans as the only correct position) that he who criticizes the war or raises questions about it wants to undercut the troops and is in bed with terrorists. IN are speeches focusing more on content…more on specifics…with mentions of how healthy debate and the loyal opposition are (a position now assumed by some partisans who, once Bush uttered his words suggesting a different line, no longer proclaim the Republic is at stake if someone toughly questions war policy or war implementation).
In fact, Bush & Co have been working on a MASTERFUL political make-over. It almost seems as if Bush is following political scientist Larry Sabato’s advice about how to pull himself out of a slump.
Yesterday’s NBC Nightly News contained part of an interview that will air in full on MSNBC tonight: Brian Williams grilling the President and following him around after having been granted extensive access.
And a grilling it was: Williams asked some very tough questions. But Bush was ready for them and answered in a relaxed mode.
His appearance was also a bit jolting. Gone was the angry President talking about cutting and running. As he answered some very tough questions (that his staff was certain to anticipate) Bush answered them with a gentle smile, calm, relaxed. He seemed to be trying to increase his likeability factor.
And if it seemed deja vu, you’re right: this also happened in his 2004 Presidential debates with John Kerry. A poor first showing, where he showed his ire, was followed by a smiling, calm Bush.
This suggests this is part of a concerted effort to win back moderates and centrists of both parties who started to flee the administration…and that this new approach is working.