In case anyone missed it amid the hoopla of the government shutdown, New Jersey hosted a U.S. Senate race last week. An election was necessitated in the “Garden State” by the summer death of senior Senator Frank Lautenberg and, as expected, Newark Mayor Cory Booker defeated ex-Bogota Mayor and Gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan to fill the final year of Lautenberg’s term. But Booker’s 11% margin, 55%-44%, was hailed by some on the right as lukewarm in a deep blue state. They cite President Obama’s 19 point margin post-Sandy last year, and the 20% distance incumbent Senator Robert Menendez put between his rival, Joe Kyrillos when winning his second term that same year.
Booker is New Jersey’s Senator elect
The National Review’s John Fund went so far as to say that because Lonegan, who ran as a Tea-Party candidate, was able to nearly halve the margins of Obama and Menendez, it should be taken as a sign that New Jerseyans are actually embracing that philosophy. “Lonegan lost,” Fund wrote, “but his principle campaign showed the strength of conservative activists in a state that hasn’t voted Republican for President in a quarter-century.” Democrats on the other hand were quick to state to call the election a repudiation of hard-core Republicans. Neither is correct.
First, let’s state the obvious. On paper, Booker’s margin would appear to have been unspectacular and by numbers, appearances in this case is not deceiving. But let’s look at why?
This was a special election cleverly snuck into the month of October by Governor Chris Christie, presumably to hold down urban turnout when he faces the voters in twelve days. And rather than schedule the Senate election on the traditional Tuesday as all other elections are, was held on a Wednesday.
Turnout in the special election was 1.2 million. That was far below the 2.6 million who cast ballots in the Presidential race last year, and the 2.3 million who voted in the Senate election that same day. Percentagewise, that came out to just 24%. The Presidential election attracted 61% of New Jerseyans and, post-Sandy, that was even considered low.
Moreover, Booker, while far from running a detached campaign, did not exactly step up to the plate the a fire ’em up, give ’em hell campaign the way many Democrats had hoped. Lonegan, on the other hand, despite holding positions that are out of touch with most New Jerseyans, has always been a superb messenger.
Given his far right bent and the national climate, it’s unlikely Lonegan won over many fence sitters. But he clearly motivated his base. In particular, Ocean County, a populous, already Republican heavy county where the central part of Jersey meets the southern part of the state. Lonegan ran up an unexpectedly high 64%. In Salem County, where Obama and McCain tied last year, Lonegan took 57%. But his showing in other Republican counties, Morris and Monmouth was just 54%, and that was about right. But that’s only half the story. The other half is that in his territory, Booker overperformed too.
In Bergen, Hudson, Union, and Passaic in North Jersey, Booker actually ran ahead of expectations. Ditto with Essex, his home base. Now Booker did underwhelm in three southern New Jersey counties – Atlantic, Cumberland, and Glouster, where his margin of victory was between one and three percent. But the motivation of folks coming out to vote for a Mayor of Newark on a Wednesday in October was about the same as North Jerseyans thinking matter of factly that they ought to go and cast a ballot for a little known South Jersey guy like Rob Andrews and Steve Sweeney.
And remarkably, Booker came within one percent of taking Somerset County. This is a traditional Republican bastion but one that voted for President Obama twice. It also went for Governor Christie by 22 points, Kryillos, and even Dick Zimmer in his bid to unseat Lautenberg in ’08.
Assuredly, New Jerseyans are no way moving toward the far right as much as Massachusetts was when Gabriel Gomez held Ed Markey to a similar 55% earlier this year. Special elections are just that; special. So while Fund may have a point that “it can’t be said that voters rose up to protest Republicans as Obama and Booker urged,
“neither is there any iota of evidence to support the notion that, exceptv for a one of a kind personality named Chris Christie, New Jersey is anything but a solidly Democratic bastion.
The bottom line: Booker will have an opportunity to test New Jersey’s “deep blue” proclivities next year when he again will face the voters. And this time, it’ll take place in a regular cycle. There’s no reason to believe Booker won’t perform to expectations. In other words, if the New Jersey Senate race had taken place in a regular cycle, Booker would’ve cleaned Lonegan’s clock.
And for those who think otherwise: you know better.