Here’s what’s going on. By all historical measures, the Republicans should be cruising to victory in this year’s presidential election. Instead they’re getting creamed. According to RCP , Obama already has 265 electoral votes, just 5 short of the number needed for election, and he leads in every toss up state left on the map. Winning any remaining state, except New Hampshire with only four electoral votes, puts Obama over the top. But that’s not all.
In the Senate, the Democrats have 23 seats up, the Republicans only 10. And several of the Democratic seats are in traditionally conservative states. A year ago it was regarded as a slam dunk by virtually every political observer in America that the Republicans would take over the Senate majority. Where does Real Clear Politics peg the Senate outcome today? 48 D – 43 R, with 9 toss-ups, and a likely final result of 52 D – 48 R. Democrats are now odds on favorites to retain control of the Senate. There’s even talk, though still premature, of Democrats retaking the House. They will most likely make some gains there, which should not be happening, though they are unlikely to retake control.
So how can this be? Manufacturing excuses like over sampling Democrats by [each and all, save Rasmussen] polling professionals doesn’t explain it. Calling Romney a lousy candidate is a truism that explains nothing about the down ticket difficulties Republicans are experiencing. The real culprit is the Republican Party itself. Once America’s legitimate party of traditional conservatism, the Republican Party is now a toxic concoction of freak show outliers, subtle [and sometimes not so subtle] racists, radicals, Randians and phony libertarians.
You’re right. Americans generally enjoy a good freak show. Our television airwaves are filled with proof of that. But we want our freak shows as entertainment. We don’t want them in our back yards, and we don’t want them running the country. So what’s under the Republican freak show tent? Beginning in the late 80’s, religious zealots began to push true conservatives to the sidelines. The religious zealots were soon joined by the radical right wingers.
Aside. Let me pause here to explain that words like “zealot” and “radical” do not describe conservatives. To use the phrase “radical conservative” is an oxymoron. When right wingers say “the Republican candidates are not conservative enough,” they misspeak. What they mean is that the Republican candidates are not radical enough.
Returning to the primary thesis. The religious zealots and and radical right wingers soon found cohorts in the anything-but-conservative neocon foreign policy radical militarists. Various cultists, like the Randians, have now joined the fray led by Vice Presidential hopeful Paul Ryan [except that, unlike his cult leader, he is not pro choice]. Elements left over from the eugenics movement, more cult than science itself, helped give an impression of underlying racism to the Party. It was vagrant eugenicists that helped write much of the anti-immigrant legislation that will likely cost the Party the Latino vote for generations to come. Phony libertarians, led by Ron Paul [sorry, Ron Paul fans, but “phony libertarian” best describes him if you know all of his positions] leapt onto the crazy wagon that had once been the legitimate party of American conservatism. And, wala, you have our current iteration of the Republican Party, give or take a few overlooked freak show outliers.
The inmates have taken over the asylum. The honest standard bearers of American conservatism have been driven from the party. Understand that it is not simply moderate Republicans, fiscally conservative but socially liberal, who have been branded as RINO’s and thrown into the roadside swale by the radical rabble. They have effectively done the same to legitimate conservatives with the incessant demands that candidates and positions become increasingly radical. Republicans talk about their base. But the truth is they have lost their base; they have lost, or are losing, legitimate conservatives. They have left the field of sane politics, rational policy and moderation untended for the Democrats to claim.
How does the implosion of the Republican Party work? Implosion is a word used intentionally here. It requires an internal force of sufficient magnitude to cause a collapse. That internal force is made up of the radical freak show elements taking over the policy making and candidate selection processes. To get through the primary process in the Republican Party, one of two things must happen. You must either take positions so far right that you cannot later disentangle yourself from them, ala Mitt Romney, or you must be a true believer in the freak show outlier positions, ala Todd Akin. Either way, you emerge from the candidate selection process as a) out of the mainstream or b) perceived as out of the mainstream.
Playing to the base in the primaries and moving to the center in the general no longer works. The reason is that the base is no longer conservative. Conservatives would allow, and even understand, this traditional shift. Radicals won’t permit it because…well…they’re radicals. And with modern technology the opposition, ready to claim the middle ground even if they’re not truly moderate themselves, won’t permit radical primary positions to be forgotten.
The Republicans have put together a coalition. But it is a losing coalition. So far, demographics have not been mentioned in this piece, but they are real and they too are moving against the freak show coalition. Is there hope for the Republican Party? For what it’s worth, my opinion is that the Republican Party is unlikely to survive another decade as a major party. Radicalism always exhausts itself and falls by the wayside of American politics. And, if all the Republicans have remaining is a coalition of radicals, their party will fall with the exhaustion of the radicalism. Meantime, the Republican Party will continue to lose elections that it should be winning in a cake walk.
Contributor, aka tidbits. Retired attorney in complex litigation, death penalty defense and constitutional law. Former Nat’l Board Chair: Alzheimer’s Association. Served on multiple political campaigns, including two for U.S. Senator Mark O. Hatfield (R-OR). Contributing author to three legal books and multiple legal publications.