President Barack Obama in the biggest “Duh!” this side of Charlie Sheen announced he’s going to run for re-election. The conventional wisdom: he’s in better shape going into 2011 than the Republicans. Is the conventional wisdom correct? Is it wrong?
If you consider where Barack Obama is politically, and where he could be given his overflowing plate of problems, the conclusion is: as of April 2011 it looks like Barack Obama will be re-elected since the Republicans are gravitas-candidate challenged. But beware: there are as many “on the other hands” in this political picture as hands on the Hindu Goddess Kali.
In just one day you can read that: a)a sitting President is almost never defeated unless he faces a challenge for the Presidential nomination from within his own party b)Franklin Roosevelt and Bill Clinton were the only Democratic Presidents in the past 90 years who were re-elected. History suggests Obama’s chances look good. Wait! History suggests Obama’s chances look BAD.
Here’s a thumbnail guide of “yes he’s ahead” and “no he can lose.” Hold onto it going into election year.
Seven factors that put Obama in a good position for re-election:
1. Independent Voters: Polls now show Obama gaining back some lost independent voter support as he takes some stands upsetting his party’s liberal base. Reports suggest he is consciously playing to the middle. It worked for Bill Clinton.
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.