The Syrian war is entering a new phase that could start the country’s breakup and suck the US into a black hole from which almost no light escapes, even if it tries to intervene to prevent atrocities. President Barack Obama has no good choices but the bad ones have become worse.
UN Human Rights chief Navi Pillay today voiced the main fear gnawing at the international community’s conscience. She expects many more human rights atrocities and insisted that perpetrators from all sides be referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The situation in Syria is moving rapidly towards genuine chaos, which US-enforced no-fly zones or even boots on the ground can no longer control. Therefore, caution is the only course of action Obama has.
Two developments nearing maturity could make Syria a worse hell for civilians while triggering splits into four or more parts. President Bashar al Assad’s Shia-influenced Alawite sect would hole up in one part; fundamentalist Sunnis loyal to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates would grab another; moderate Shia Muslims and moderate Sunnis may settle in a third; and the Kurds would take a fourth. The segment taken by fundamentalist, probably led by al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, would be a short step away from a safe haven for hardcore anti-West terrorists.
One of the developments could cause the war to spread very quickly to Lebanon, a fragile and unstable country at best. The other could help Syrian Kurds to seek autonomy or separation from Syria causing fear in Turkey, Jordan and Iran since each has restive Kurdish minorities.
These trends have been underway for a while but became clearer this week even as the US and Russia finally agreed to push for a Syrian peace conference “as soon as possible”. There is little cause for optimism since the conference may come too late, if it happens, or end in stalemate between Washington and Moscow. The US will try to put its friends in power overruling Alawites and fundamentalist Sunnis, while Russia will refuse any situation in which Assad may be hanged by his American-backed successors.
The first cause for concern is the very heavy military buildup of government and rebel forces around the western Syrian town of Qusayr near the Lebanese border. It lies south of the already devastated city of Homs, Syria’s third largest, located on the strategic road linking Damascus to the coast.
Pillay said she was appalled at serious human rights violations amounting to war crimes or crimes against humanity, including killings this week in the village of al-Bayda and the Baniyas area. She blamed insurgents for some atrocities, but placed greater blame on government forces. “Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture, constitute very serious crimes,” Pillay said warning both sides. But she added, “We are getting consistent testimonies that suggest government forces are directly targeting key life-sustaining entities such as bakeries and pharmacies, hospitals and schools where civilians are sheltering.”
The fight for Qusayr, currently held by insurgents, has brought Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon to bolster the pro-government militias and the Syrian army. Civilians are fleeing the area in large numbers bolstering the impression that the army plans a major attack to retake the city.
The problem is that most refugees are Sunnis entering Lebanese border areas that contain large Shia populations and the likely tensions may cause sectarian war again in Lebanon. Hezbollah thinks the refugees contain Sunni fighters seeking safe haven and is sending fighters into Syria to stop that.
The other cause for concern is a decision by northern Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) to give military training to Syrian Kurds, who constitute about 11 percent of the population similarly to Assad’s Alawite minority. At the same time, about 2,000 well-trained Kurdish fighters from Turkey are entering KRG controlled mountains to help their Syrian brethren
The KRG denies trying to help Syrian Kurds to seek separation but warns that Kurds must prevent gains by Sunni fundamentalists and al-Nusra. Kurds are moderate Sunnis belonging to a different ethnic group from Arabs, so they do not defer to Saudi-aided Sunnis.
The border areas with Iraq, Turkey and Jordan have large populations of Syrian Kurds who have the same ethnic origins as those in the autonomous Kurdish regions of Iraq. If the Kurds unite to stop al Nusra in Syria, Ankara will have a hard time stopping Turkish Kurds from acquiring battle experience that might later be used to seek autonomy in Turkey.
The most poignant aspect of these developments is that over 55 percent of Syrians are in a limbo not knowing what to do, according to Nechivran Barzani, the KRG’s prime minister. That compares with 25 percent behind Assad and 15-20 percent behind the insurgents. Thus, a majority would thank the US-Russia peace conference if it works out an inclusive government that sends war criminals to the international court. But the gates of hate and fear are wide open and neither Washington nor Moscow has yet spoken of carrots that might get everyone to start closing them .