Over at The Reaction, co-blogger Grace suggests that Prime Minister Harper’s Conservative government may use a vote on the softwood lumber dispute with the U.S. to force a new election, perhaps before the opposition Liberals are able to choose a new leader at a party convention scheduled for December. It would mean a second federal election this year (the first was in January) and the third since June ’04.
Why would Harper welcome another election so soon? He only leads a minority government (the Conservatives hold 124 of 308 seats in the House of Commons). Plus, Harper took a significant hit over the conflict in Lebanon (he supported Israel and there were delays getting Canadians out of Beirut) and recent poll numbers suggest that the Conservatives have returned to the level of support they were at back in January (meaning that over seven months in office haven’t brought them any new popularity). With the Liberals essentially leader-less, however, this could be a good opportunity for Harper to secure a majority government.
The question is whether the Conservatives think they win enough seats for a majority even without solid poll numbers. And, even then, one wonders if Canadians want to head back to the polls for what would clearly be a shameless power grab. Harper may view this as an opportunity to benefit himself, but Canadians, who tend to love knocking leaders off their perches, may see it as an opportunity to say no.
For more, see Grace’s post here.