When was it we were all so sure there’d be a Republican wave in November. …? There may not be. That greenish-brownish sludge in the corporate retaining pool over there on the right is barely moving, much less turning into a wave.[icopyright one button toolbar]
Things could change. But they’re looking less and less favorable for the Republican party.
Greg Sargent has this succinct update:
Pollster Andrew Kohut has a good piece explaining that the GOP has not amassed the lead in the generic ballot match-up it had in 2010, which may dim chances of taking the Senate:
The GOP’s relatively thin 47-44 lead in the current polls also strongly suggests that this is not a tide election—which could affect the heated battle for control of the Senate in a handful of key states. If the GOP is to regain control of the Senate, it will have to be on the strength of its Senate candidates, not on the coattails of a decidedly pro-Republican national mood.
If this is right, GOP chances may hinge on the closing performances of Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Oh yeah, and Senator Pat Roberts in Kansas.
Kohut’s “decidedly pro-Republican national mood” seems a bit off-track. Isn’t a three-point lead pretty small for a midterm election? Wasn’t it at about a dozen points at this time in 2010?
Cross-posted from Prairie Weather
graphic via shutterstock.com