About one third of the normal fly zone over Europe will be reopened on Tuesday as anger began to boil with over seven million airline passengers stranded around the world. Airline losses are estimated at more than $200 million a day and losses to business may run into billions (there are no reliable estimates yet).
Surprisingly it took five days for the ministers to agree on a meeting held by teleconference because of airport closures in most of Europe. The closures were ordered by governments based on computer models of the ash and dust spewed into the sky by Iceland’s volcanic eruption. Airlines were willing to conduct limited flights after 48 hours but were grounded because of sharply reduced airport facilities.
The cautious ministerial decision came after an angry outburst by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). It’s chief condemned government handling of the crisis as based on theory rather than facts and called it a European embarrassment and a European mess. The IATA’s eruption is surprising because governments shut down most European airports for safety reasons and to prevent damage to airliner engines.
But Air France, KLM and British Airways conducted short test flights on Monday with empty planes and reported no hazards. Airline professionals seem convinced that a substantial resumption of flights is safe. But ministers agreed to open just one third of the airspace allowing 10%-15% more flights, fearing political fallout if an accident occurs on their watch.
There is confusion because some volcano experts say the Icelandic eruptions could continue for weeks if neighboring volcanoes in the chain turn active. Although the politicians did well to be more prudent than airlines, their ministries did not discuss the pros and cons with the airlines before ordering blanket closures. Since the European Union operates as a single entity although it contains 27 sovereign countries, almost the entire air zone was shut making it impossible for airlines to fly from Europe to other continents not affected by the ash.
Flight frequency will increase gradually with additional measures taken by airlines to ensure safe operations. These will include day flights only, restrictions to specific flight corridors, special climb and descent procedures, and more frequent detailed engine inspections to detect damage.
A United Nations agency called the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is expected to hold a meeting soon to more clearly define how airlines and governments should handle airspace closures, including special operating procedures and standards for risk and data analysis.
IATA’s outburst gives the impression that airlines are more worried about costs rather than airliner safety at a time when government regulators are cautious about taking risks. It may not win points with the flying public, which seems to be patient and has voiced resignation at an act of nature rather than anger. But the core points are correct. After the first 48 hours of closure, the regulators worsened the mess by doing little until the fifth day to assess flight risks more closely and to designate temporary safe corridors.