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Saddam Hussein and Iraq…What Next? »
Dec 30, 2006 by POLIMOM
We’d been anticipating Saddam Hussein’s execution all day, but when the news finally came last night, I was a bit surprised at my lack of reaction. As I wrote this morning — it seems so irrelevant somehow.
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If you were a US soldier in Iraq, you might not think this was so irrelevant.
Why? What has changed for them?
Quoting your co-blogger, Marc Schulman:
I have no illusions that Saddam’s demise will improve the situation in Iraq; in the short term, it may even fuel a spike in violence.
Schulman link HERE.
BYG — there’s been a lot of speculation on whether a spike might be fueled.
FWIW — I don’t know whether you read Stratfor, but for pure analysis, I find them to be extremely good. They came out with a comprehensive analysis last night, which included this:
Neither Hussein’s initial conviction nor the court’s upholding of his death sentence galvanized any real loyalist response — which suggests that the proportion of Hussein loyalists within the Sunni insurgency is extremely small. Furthermore, the possibility of a Baath Party resurgence is highly unlikely; the Sunnis must learn to survive amidst the numerically superior, militarily stronger and politically more powerful Shia. The Sunnis may well have concluded that Hussein’s martyrdom would add nothing to their current struggle — or even that launching attacks in Hussein’s name would be counterproductive.
(link here, by subscription) They don’t rule out short-term consequences, either. Ultimately, though, Saddam’s support is seen as quite low — contrary to what we’ve been reading in the MSM.
Our soldiers are already in profound danger every minute of every day. If Saddam’s execution does cause a spike in violence (and I hope it doesn’t), I think it’s a matter of relativity.
Thus I asked — what’s changed? Are they suddenly vigilent, when before they were not?
A matter of relativity?
Thank you for the clarification.
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