There are many messages to discern from voters this midterm election. But surely one of the most important is that we need to start cutting our annual budget deficits and our long term debt. I share that concern – especially the long term debt, which could make future borrowing much more expensive. I think short-term spending was appropriate as a way to boost the economy in a moment of crisis, but the long term fiscal outlook is still quite perilous.
There are two parts to deficit reduction: spending cuts and revenue increases. It is simply impossible to cut the deficit or debt significantly by relying on tax increases alone or spending cuts alone. The hole is just too deep for partisan gimmickry.
That’s why I’m excited that the Simpson-Bowles commission report came out. It’s not that I agree with all or most of the recommendations. It’s that we need to have an adult conversation about cutting the debt. And it will require both sides to give up some ideological sacred cows for it to happen.
For Democrats, it will mean cuts to Social Security and to health care – especially insofar as it affects the cost of Medicare and Medicaid. None of those cuts will be easy. But if they are gradually eased in, they can be done with relatively minimal burden on the lives of Americans. I think a multi-tier extension of the retirement age is one option. Those in manual labor employment can still retire at 65 while those whose jobs were less physically demanding – and hence less likely to reduce life span and create old-age chronic illness – will have a higher retirement age. There are other tweaks to Social Security as well.
As for health care costs, Democrats need to allow tort reform to pass – though it should be with a new non-partisan, non-doctor controlled malpractice board established to determine if real malpractice is evident and can go ahead to trial. It won’t do much to lower costs but it will help a little. There are myriad other cost-saving plans out there and they should be studied extensively – especially now that we have a universal health insurance system coming into place.
And, of course, defense spending must be cut significantly. There is simply no need to have a Cold War defense budget to fight a global counterinsurgency against today’s assymetric enemies.
But on the revenue side, the Federal government can do something right now that will end the red tide into debt oblivion: let ALL the Bush tax cuts expire. Here is where both parties are shamefully short-sided and cynical. Put simply, we never could afford the Bush tax cuts from 2001 and 2003 and we certainly can’t afford them now.
As for the middle class taxes, right now a huge chunk of the country pays zero income tax. Yes, they pay payroll taxes, but income taxes are nil for a very large segment of America. I am personally included in that bracket as my family of four makes just over $50,000 per year. With child tax credits and home mortgage deductions I pay zero income tax – on top of my zero Tennessee state income tax. I’m not exactly sitting pretty financially, but it doesn’t seem right that I pay zero in income taxes. What’s more, while we need progressivity in the tax code, a too top-heavy system will only breed resentment and discord as the mass of lower and middle class “taxpayers” get all kinds of government benefits (which I support) but pay little or nothing in return. The Clinton-era tax code for working and middle classes is appropriate.
As for the wealthy, there are two arguments floated – mostly by Republicans – for why we cannot raise their taxes. Both are flawed. First is that you should never raise taxes in a recession. To that I say, when is it ever “fine” to raise taxes? It’s always at least somewhat painful. But the wealthy – like everybody else – can and will figure out how to budget higher tax payments.
The second, and increasingly foolish, argument against raising taxes on the wealthy is the claim that the wealthy are the ones who create the jobs; alas, raising their taxes would mean they’d be less likely to create jobs. On an absolute scale that is true. But the fact of the matter is, corporations in America are doing remarkably well right now. There’s a reason the Dow Jones is so strong right now. Companies are sitting on boat loads of cash. Yet they still aren’t hiring. Obviously, lower taxes has not encouraged them to create jobs in America. And it isn’t “fear of regulatory or tax uncertainty” that’s keeping them back either. It’s lack of demand that’s the problem. Raising taxes on the wealthy will have minimal effect on job creation.
We faced a similar situation in the early 1990s when a slow recovery and massive deficit forced Bush Sr. and Clinton to raise taxes on a fragile economy. Not only did it not materially slow the recovery down, it began the process of putting our fiscal house in order. Spending cuts initiated by the GOP Congress helped accelerate a process that had already begun. By 1998 we were in a budget surplus.
We have to ask ourselves today: are we serious about cutting the deficit and the long term debt, or not? Both sides have to give ideological room, Norquists and Krugmans be damned. I have no faith that our political leadership sees the situation clearly. But with enough pressure from the political center we can push a more sensible fiscal policy – a truly conservative fiscal policy that actually balanced budgets and doesn’t rely on bogus economic theories.